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THE CRISIS TODAY - An Insider's Briefing (Wednesday, August 2, 2006)

Israeli Security Expert Yossi Alpher offers a daily briefing during the elevated crisis in Israel...

Today's Briefing - Wednesday, August 2

"Garbage Time" by Yossi Alpher

All the relevant leaders, and a few irrelevant ones, have begun making statements that seriously degrade their credibility. But cynics can learn something from what they choose to say.

Yesterday, PM Ehud Olmert told a graduating class of the National War College that "the face of the Middle East has changed thanks to the great achievement of the Israeli army, the Israeli people and the State of Israel. . . .[Hezbollah] will never again be able to threaten this people with missiles." With around 100 rockets still falling every day, how did Olmert reach this conclusion? His statement was reminiscent of PM Menachem Begin, upon the launching of Operation Peace for Galilee in June 1982, promising "and the land was at peace for 40 years". In fact, Olmert's victory spin appeared to be designed to lower expectations and prepare the public for a ceasefire in which not all of Israel's war aims are realized.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the movement's TV station, al-Manar, have begun telling blatant lies: "The Israeli soldiers were shot in the back because they fled like mice" declared Nasrallah lately. Al-Manar is quoting a Hezbollah press releases to the effect that an IAF helicopter and another Israel Navy missile boat have been hit (in fact, the only one hit thus far returned to service today, after repairs). With Hezbollah's losses piling up and the IDF taking the initiative on the ground, the movement and its leader are apparently getting desperate.

Lebanese President Emil Lahoud, a pro-Syrian Christian whose term Damascus extended through manipulation before Syria was kicked out of the country, stated yesterday: "Now we're winning because we're united, but if foreign forces [i.e., an international intervention or monitoring force] come, dissent will begin." Translation: an international force, particularly one led by France, is likely to reinforce the moderate anti-Syrian camp in Lebanon.

In Ramallah Hani al-Hassan, one of the original Fateh "Bolsheviks" (younger Palestinians call them "dinosaurs"), declared yesterday: "Whatever Hassan Nasrallah asks, we'll do." Most reports indicate that we are near a ceasefire and prisoner release agreement on the southern front. True, the Palestinian street, like the Arab street everywhere, idolizes Nasrallah. But I can't imagine a less credible statement coming from the Fateh leadership these days. Incidentally, Hani sends me Rosh HaShanah greetings every fall.

Finally, this morning, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that "Hezbollah is the line of defense of the Islamic peoples". Is that a threat to intervene, a complement to the losing side, or empty rhetoric?

The bottom line: the end of this war is in sight, and everyone is positioning himself politically for the fallout.


The Crisis Today-An Insider's Briefing is a new daily, internet publication of Americans for Peace Now. A new edition of The Crisis Today will be posted Tuesday through Friday morning by 9:00 a.m. for as long as the current crisis continues.

The Crisis Today is written by Yossi Alpher, whose views do not necessarily reflect those of Americans for Peace Now or Peace Now.


Link to APN's Crisis Resource Page



Links to previous Briefings:

August 1, 2006
July 31, 2006
July 28, 2006
July 27, 2006
July 26, 2006
July 25, 2006
July 24, 2006
July 21, 2006
July 20, 2006
July 19, 2006
July 18, 2006