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October 10, 2005 - Vol. 7, Issue 11

Roll Up The Red Carpet: A planned Tuesday summit between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been postponed for several weeks, and will likely take place in late October or early November, according to Palestinian official Nabil Abu Rdeneh. "There was not enough preparation for this summit," he said. "The meetings between Palestinian officials and Israelis will continue in the coming weeks to prepare for this summit." ...

Roll Up The Red Carpet: A planned Tuesday summit between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been postponed for several weeks, and will likely take place in late October or early November, according to Palestinian official Nabil Abu Rdeneh. "There was not enough preparation for this summit," he said. "The meetings between Palestinian officials and Israelis will continue in the coming weeks to prepare for this summit." Differences between the two sides on Israel's handover of additional West Bank towns to Palestinian control and further Palestinian prisoner releases have been the most recent sticking points. (Ha'aertz, 10/10/05)

The Michael D. Brown Award For Excellence In Public Service Goes To. An investigative committee established by the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) found that the Palestinian cabinet has never once discussed the security chaos in the occupied territories, nor has Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia ever asked it to do so. The panel was charged with examining the Palestinian Authority's ongoing failure to impose order on armed Palestinian gangs and militias. Its report said that despite Qureia's repeated public comments about the need to impose order on the armed gangs, in practice, his government failed to make any attempt to deal with either the armed militias or the power struggles among the various Palestinian security services that impeded action against these militias. It also found that there was a "clear failure in implementing the reform and development plan, as well as in the war against corruption." The committee recommended ousting Qureia's government, which the PLC voted overwhelmingly to do last week. (Ha'aretz, 10/7/05)

Intelligent Designs? If Hamas wins the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections, it intends to establish an Islamic state in which gays will have no rights, mixed dancing will be banned, and all relations with Israel will be severed and punishable by law. The terror group's platform for Palestine was presented last week by Mahmoud " Chuckles" a-Zahar, the movement's leader in Gaza, in an interview with the Ilaf website. "If the Palestinian street elects us we will lead it in a ship that represents it. We will not lead it in a minority ship, in the ship of the Israeli enemy or in a ship of the West," said a-Zahar. He praised the Kalkilya municipality in the West Bank, which is under Hamas rule, for having stopped a party at which there was mixed dancing. "What national benefit is gained from that?" he asked. "A man holds a woman by the hand and dances with her in front of everyone. Does that serve the national problem? If so, why have the phenomena of corruption and prostitution become pervasive in recent years? Hasn't that happened because of lasciviousness and mixed activities?"

A-Zahar said that Palestine, once established, would be part of the grand Islamic Umma, and would be based on the tenets of Islam. "Look, Sweden, three months ago, permitted a man to marry a man and a woman to marry a woman. Is that the democracy we want? Is it for those laws that the Palestinian street is waiting? For us to grant rights to homosexuals and to emotional and moral deviants? We need to choose which laws we want: the laws of chaos, AIDS and the homeless, or the laws of justice and grace." The state of Hamas, according to a-Zahar, will sever all ties with Israel. "It is the national interest to stop all cooperation with Israel in all areas: security, political or economic. Why do we need to buy a liter of gasoline from Israel for five shekels when we can buy it from Egypt for one shekel? We need to sever our relations with Israel, but the question is whether to do so all at once or gradually." (Ma'ariv, 10/6/05)

Arrested Development: Commenting about the Palestinian political situation, Danny Rubinstein wrote, "The official Palestinian announcement reported a relative successful showing by the Fatah movement in the third round of local council elections in the West Bank.But this success is cast in doubt. According to official data, Fatah won 53% of seats in the local councils, and Hamas only 26%. Yet if you take a closer look at the numbers of voters for the two movements, it becomes clear that Hamas actually carried more votes. In any event, Hamas clearly is the ascendant power among the Palestinian public. The movement is deeply rooted in public life. 'Our enemies are trying to stick us with an image of Al Qaida-type terrorist fanatics, but the truth is that we are a legitimate national resistance movement," said Hamas spokesmen [two weekends ago].

"The Israel Defense Forces, which in the past [few] weeks has been targeting terrorists in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for assassination, struck mainly at members of Islamic Jihad and Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade. Not Hamas activists. Conversely, the vast majority of the approximately 400 activists arrested in the past few weeks in the West Bank have links to Hamas. Many of the detainees are considered political activists and are not linked to terrorist activity, including Hassan Yusef of Ramallah and Mohammed Ghazal of Nablus. Both men belong to the moderate wing of Hamas, and Ghazal recently announced that Hamas might consider modifying its charter, which denies Israel's right to exist. (Although Ghazal denied making the statement, Reuters responded that it had a recording of his statement in its possession.)

"As far as can be discerned from the response of the Palestinian street to the targeted assassinations and arrests, they have, as one might expect, increased the bitterness toward Israel. What's more, the assassination victims included a child (in Balata) and at least two other young people who had nothing to do with terror attacks. No less important is the fact that the arrests evidently adversely affected the status of the Palestinian Authority chairman, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). After all, everyone knows that Abu Mazen and his colleagues in the Fatah leadership are afraid of Hamas success in the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council (the parliament), which are to be held in late January. Against this background, people have begun to talk in the West Bank street about how the arrests are part of a scheme hatched by Abu Mazen and Ariel Sharon, with the aim of striking at Hamas and weakening it in the period leading up to the election. Such talk harms the chairman and his partners in the government.

"Another outcome of the arrests that is possibly even more significant is that the Hamas movement could move increasingly toward clandestine underground activity. This is at odds with the Palestinian Authority's plan for dealing with it. Abu Mazen is trying to encourage Hamas to end terrorist activities and become a political party. He has had limited success, such as the ceasefire agreement in which Hamas was a partner, and its willingness to take part in elections to the city councils and to parliament. In the opinion of the Palestinian leadership, this is an important stage on the path of Hamas toward acceptance of the Oslo Accords and joining in the diplomatic process, which would mean recognition of the State of Israel. Mass arrests such as those [two weekends ago], and the targeted assassinations, of course, make Hamas move backward, and strengthen its extremist wing. Since it is a movement that has won the admiration and respect of the masses, Israel's struggle against it must not take a solely military character. An exclusively military campaign would not help. On the contrary, it would weaken Fatah and Abu Mazen and would fortify his opponents." (Ha'aretz, 10/3/05)

After The Holidays: Egypt is considering tendering a proposal to postpone the Palestinian parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2006 due to the weakened position of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). For now, Egyptian officials are conducting unofficial talks with Palestinian Authority (PA) officials and other regional players. The plan is likely to be unveiled only after the next round of local elections, on December 7, involving important cities such as Gaza, Nablus, and Hebron. If Hamas proves victorious, Egypt will try to postpone the January poll date. Fatah was successful in [the most recent] local elections, but since it involved small communities and Hamas was barred from participating in about half of them, the results are not considered significant.

For its part, the PA is contemplating postponing the elections because of the ongoing lawlessness and anarchy and growing tensions with Hamas. "I don't see how we can hold parliamentary elections under the current circumstances," one Palestinian legislator said. "Abu Mazen must first end the anarchy and violence." Another legislator quoted sources close to Abbas as saying that he was inclined to delay the vote "indefinitely" and declare a state of emergency in the wake of growing tensions between the PA and Hamas. "Abu Mazen is in an awkward situation," the legislator explained. "On the one hand, he's under pressure from Israel and the U.S. to prevent Hamas from running in the elections. On the other hand, he will never be able to issue a ban on Hamas' participation because the Palestinian public won't accept it. That's why the best solution would be to postpone the elections until further notice." Hamas says it agreed earlier this year to abide by the unofficial truce with Israel after receiving promises from Abbas that the movement would be allowed to participate in the parliamentary elections. Hamas leaders warned that preventing it from running in the elections would be regarded as a violation of this understanding and prompt it to resume terror attacks on Israel. (Jerusalem Post, 10/5/05 & Ha'aretz, 10/6/05)

Trailer Park Trash: Where, oh where, did 400 mobile homes that the Israeli Housing Ministry placed in the West Bank last year disappear to? Who lives in them now, and why are they not paying the state for their use? And who will return the NIS 34 million that the state paid for them? Darned if the ministry knows. That's why Housing Minister Yitzhak Herzog ordered ministry officials to find out, following the report on illegal settlement outposts written by attorney Talia Sasson, who exposed the affair of the mobile homes. In hearings in the ministers' committee for implementing the report, the Housing Ministry committed itself to finding the property mentioned in the report and collecting payment for it.

The director general of the ministry, Shmuel Abuav, determined that rental payments will be collected from the cooperative association or the community in which the mobile homes were placed. It was also determined that the ministry will impose sanctions on communities that refuse to pay. Herzog said, "The report on the illegal outposts shows a grave picture. The mobile homes affair is a blatant example of administrative impropriety that has caused economic damage to the state. The operation is intended to ensure, among other things, that the mobile homes will not be located in illegal outposts." The Sasson report revealed that in order to avoid the obligation to issue a tender for the purchase and placement of the mobile homes, the Housing Ministry bought the units on its own, giving them only to settlements in the occupied territories. This was done without explanation, without setting criteria, or determining remuneration. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 10/2/05)

Extreme Makeover-The Settlement Home Edition: Central Bureau of Statistics records show that new home purchases in the West Bank surged 38% from January to June 2005, compared with the same period last year. Sales of new homes in the West Bank reached an all time high in 2005, making up 5.3% of all new home purchases in the Israeli market, which experienced an 8% rise overall. Under the Road Map, Israel must freeze all settlement activities, including natural growth. (Arutz-7, 10/3/05)

Ticking Bomb: According to a recent report from the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, the separation wall being built around Jerusalem is not only having a negative impact on the lives of East Jerusalem residents, but it is also harming the city's Jewish inhabitants and its position as the nation's capital. "To a large extent, Jerusalem has changed from a central city providing services to more than a million people in the surrounding area to a peripheral town," the report states. ".It is a limited metropolitan area that serves only 20% of the residents it formerly did, most of them Jews." The study found that while the wall may be contributing to security, overall "it has a negative effect on life in the city and its surrounding area," and in the long-run it may increase hostility and terrorism. Even if the wall prevents the infiltration of suicide bombers, frustration and anger on the part of Jerusalem's Palestinian population that is harmed by the wall "may increase hostility and undermine the fragile relationship between the Jewish and Arab communities in the city.Beyond the short-term, the wall is likely to increase the participation of East Jerusalem residents in terror activity." (Ha'aretz, 10/6/05)

Two Fat Cows: In an analysis of the state of Israel at the beginning of the Jewish New Year, Sever Plotzker wrote, ".Only two years ago, Israel was sunk deep in a state of pessimism. A public opinion poll carried out at the time by Dr. Mina Tzemah for Yedioth Ahronoth revealed that 'at the heart of Israeli society there is a huge accumulation of despair, fears are plentiful in our midst, while hope is scarce.' 73% of Israelis believed in October 2003 that there was no future for their children in the state, 43% predicted a further worsening of the economic situation, and only a quarter dared to believe that the Intifada would end, and some kind of progress would be achieved with the Palestinians. The 24 months that elapsed since then have changed the country immeasurably. The prophets of doom were defeated. The naysayers were defeated. The despairing shown to be wrong in their despair. We can already admit it: these were two good years, may we have more like them. The economy recovered and boomed. Terror was beaten and weakened. The borders were shortened and fortified. First settlements without a future were evacuated. Due to one man, Ariel Sharon, Israel escaped the isolation, raised its head politically, and was embraced by the commonwealth of nations.

"Foreign corporations and foreign tourists rediscovered Israel. We have become a normal country: the main headlines deal with fattening geese. We have become a successful country: the main economic headlines deal with fattening up the investors. Israel's economic situation at the outset of 5766 is one of the best in its history. We will let the numbers do the talking. From Rosh Hashanah 5764 to Rosh Hashanah 5766, the standard of living of the entire population rose by 10.5%. The GDP increased by 11%, the per capita GDP by 7.5%. The business product rose by 15%, nearly a Chinese rate of growth. In these two years, Israel's population increased by a quarter of a million people. 180,000 new jobs were added, and the number of unemployed dropped by 18%. The business sector increased employment by 10%. Productivity soared. The average salary for a full-time job held by a salaried worker in Israel reached NIS 8,000 per month on the eve of Rosh Hashanah 5766, a real increase of 3.5%. The high marginal tax dropped from 60% to 49%. Inflation did not return: In two years, the CPI increased by only 2%...

"We enjoyed a plentitude of foreign currency: From the fall of 2003 until today, foreign investors put $7 billion into the productive sector of the Israeli economy, in addition to $10 billion that were invested in buying stocks of Israeli companies. Exports from Israel soared by 25%; Israel now exports goods and services in the amount of approximately $4 billion per month. Our balance of payments has turned from red to green. The world owes us money, a net amount of $22 billion. The number of tourists in the summer, which has just ended, was nearly twice their number in the unfortunate summer of 2003.According to calculations of the International Monetary Fund, Israel's per capita GDP will cross the $23,000 line this year, in terms of real buying power. In this manner, we passed Spain, Greece, and Cyprus within two years, but we are still very far from Ireland and Denmark. Still, the vision presented by Netanyahu before he resigned from the Finance Ministry-to be one of the ten richest countries in the world within ten years-no longer seems so fantastic. On Rosh Hashanah 5766 it even seems realistic, because reality is different. The optimists once again have the upper hand." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 10/3/05)

Doubling Down: The European Commission last week proposed doubling its annual aid to the Palestinians (now totaling some euro 250 million) to help them build a credible government and develop trade with Israel and its neighbors. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner called on other donors to follow suit, saying, "We must not let the chance created by the Gaza withdrawal slip through our fingers." She said a hefty rise in aid was needed in the 2006-2008 period to fund reform of the Palestinian civil service, finance election observer missions, rebuild battered air and seaports in Gaza, help Palestinians find markets for their goods, and secure investments. For the EU, this plan would mean an annual rise of euro 200 million to euro 300 million for a combined contribution of euro 700 million to euro 800 million from the EU and its member nations. She said the European Commission was determined to pull its weight and help meet the challenges of the post-disengagement period on two conditions: Other donors must also double their aid, and Israel and the Palestinians must revive the stuttering peace process. (AP, 10/5/05)

High Tech Horizon: Palestinian high tech is trying to recover from the Intifada and copy Israel's success. But Palestinian high tech suffers from a lack of investment in large ventures. Dr. Mashour Abu-Daka, a senior official in the Palestinian Communications Ministry, said there was very little cooperation with Israel in high tech, partly because of Israeli security concerns. "Israel wants only cheap labor from the Palestinians, while we want to profit from its experience, and promote cooperation in software and even in R&D," he said. He added that in his opinion, the main problems in Palestinian high tech were its reliance on small projects, and the absence of substantial investment, except for PalTel and Jawwal. The Palestinian Authority is trying to promote two high tech projects: an $80-$100 million effort for the computerization of ministries and public services, which is in the planning stage, and the computerization of education and remote online learning, with the support of the World Economic Forum. Graduates of Palestinian universities currently have no problem finding high tech jobs, but without increased investment, unemployment could become a problem. (Globes, 10/6/05)

Palestinian Blessing For Israeli-Arab Relations: Palestinian Foreign Minister Nasser Qidwa said in Egypt last week that the Palestinian Authority will respect the decision of Arab countries if they choose to have relations with Israel, even if those decisions are not in Palestinians' interests. Egypt, Jordan, and Mauritania are the only Arab countries to have full diplomatic relations with Israel at the present time. Last month, Bahrain became the first Arab Gulf state to end its economic boycott of Israel, a move taken under a free trade agreement with the U.S. that could pressure neighboring countries to do the same. "The settlement is still far off, but we respect the decisions of our friend countries.including those which are not in harmony with Palestinian interests," Qidwa said. (AP, 10/6/05)