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January 3, 2006 - Vol. 7, Issue 21

Public Pragmatism Precedes Political Posturing: Most Israelis have a pragmatic attitude toward dealing with Palestinian terrorist groups, according to the results of a recent joint Israeli-Palestinian survey conducted by the Harry S Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah.

Public Pragmatism Precedes Political Posturing: Most Israelis have a pragmatic attitude toward dealing with Palestinian terrorist groups, according to the results of a recent joint Israeli-Palestinian survey conducted by the Harry S Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah. The survey found that 50% of Israelis support and 47% of them oppose negotiations with Hamas if Israel will have to do it in order to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. Further, 53% of Israelis support and 40% oppose a proposal to disarm the organizations that belong to Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fatah by integrating them into the Palestinian security forces under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority. 81% of Palestinians support this plan for dealing with armed Palestinian groups, which is essentially what Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been trying to do.

The joint survey also found that 60% of Palestinians and 65% of Israelis back the Road Map, but just 41% of Palestinians support the Rafah crossing agreement while 56% of Israelis back the plan. 58% of Palestinians and 37% of Israelis oppose the role of European Union observers included in the Rafah agreement. On the other hand, 80% of both populations support the extension of the ceasefire. 61% of Israelis support dismantling most of the settlements in the territories as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians, and 64% of Israelis believe that in the coming years the number of West Bank settlements will decrease. A subsequent PSR survey found that some 43% of Palestinians will vote for Fatah and 25% will vote for Hamas in the legislative elections scheduled to take place later this month, with 19% undecided. The previous PSR election poll found that Fatah had the support of 50% of Palestinians, with 32% for Hamas and 11% undecided. (PSR/Palestinian-Israeli Joint Press Release, 12/21/05 & Reuters, 1/1/06)

How Porcupines Make Love: The Israeli army has already formed a secret committee that is examining how it is possible to work with the Hamas mayors who were elected last year. How, for example, does one deal with sewage flowing from Kalkilya to the community of Eyal, when the mayor is a Hamasnik? And if it is possible to work with mayors from Hamas, perhaps this model can be copied from the municipal level to the government level? This committee is secret since Israel, officially, does not talk with Hamas, and it is unthinkable that it is considering the possibility of changing its policy. Israel, however, is definitely working with municipalities that are controlled by Hamas members. In addition, an inter-ministerial team has been formed, headed by the prime minister's special adviser Dov Weisglass, to determine Israel's position on various scenarios emerging from the Palestinian elections. Of course, all this planning may be for naught. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said yesterday that the legislative elections would be delayed if Israel bars Jerusalem Arabs from voting. "All the factions agree there should be no elections" if Jerusalem is not included in the Palestinian elections, Abbas said, signaling that Hamas would also accept a delay. Leading Fatah activists, including Abu Ala, have been pressing Abbas to postpone the legislative elections and form a national unity government due to deep splits within Fatah, a fear of major Hamas gains, and the ongoing anarchy in the Palestinian streets.

For its part, some Hamas leaders hinted that the movement would endorse a "pragmatic and realistic" strategy once its representatives join the Palestinian Authority (PA) establishment. They argued that the international community's fears of Hamas' rising power were "unjustified and exaggerated." Hamas leader Mahmoud a-Zahar said he did not rule out the possibility that his group would even negotiate with Israel in the future. His remarks, like those of other top Hamas leaders, are seen as an attempt to send a message to the international community that would soften its position after this month's parliamentary elections. A-Zahar, the overall leader of Hamas in Gaza, said that he did not consider negotiations with Israel a "crime." Hamas, he explained, does not rule out the possibility of holding negotiations with Israel, especially if they achieve desired results. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/30/05 & 1/1/06; AP, 1/2/06; & Jerusalem Post, 12/29/05)

Stain Remover: Israeli attorney Talia Sasson, who was asked by the Israeli government to author a report on illegal settlement outposts that was presented to the cabinet last year, gave a lecture last week at Haifa University entitled "Israel and the Law in the Territories." She charged that the involvement of the military government with the government's Jewish settlement program was "very bad and harmful." Sasson said that the military government, officially known as the Civil Administration, which was established according to international law to look after the welfare of the Palestinians, had turned into the main institution charged with implementing Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. "The Civil Administration allocates land, declares that the land is state-owned, and approved connections to water and electricity," said Sasson. "The administration, in essence, is the institution that makes settlement activity in the territories possible."

She added that "the Civil Administration is subordinate to the army and the military commander on the one hand, and to the co-coordinator of activists in the territories, also a uniformed officer, on the other. Thus, the body through which the government has acted for many years regarding everything to do with the settlements is administered by and under the command of the IDF. This intermingling between the army and the settlement enterprise in the territories is very bad and harmful." Sasson charged that the "violation of the principle of the rule of law and the gross violation of the law that is taking place in the territories today is unparalleled. The responsibility for redressing this situation falls above all on the shoulders of the government and its institutions. It cannot run away from this responsibility. As long as no steps are taken.our entire society will be morally stained. Therefore, we must demand over and over again that the government remedy the situation." Her speech at Haifa University was the first time that Sasson had openly criticized the government and publicly demanded it take action against illegal settlement outposts since the publication of her report. (Jerusalem Post, 12/27/05)

Settlers Unbound: According to the settlers' Arutz-7 radio station, young settlers recently established a string of new illegal settlement outposts in the West Bank, and Israeli soldiers are standing guard at the sites. The Land of Israel Faithful are reported to be building outside the following settlements: Elazar, Bat Ayin, and Efrat in Gush Etzion; Adei Ad, Beit El, Maale Levonah, Psagot, and Kokhav Yaakov in the area north of Jerusalem; Maale Hever, south of Hebron; Mitzpeh Yericho and Kokhav HaShachar in the Jordan Valley; Karnei Shomron, Eli, Peduel, Talmon, and Yitzhar in the Shomron region; Neriah and Karmei Tzur; and Kisufim, at the entrance of Gaza. Four of the outposts have already been taken down, but the settlers have vowed to rebuild them.

Meanwhile, the IDF is keeping a regular force posted at the illegal outpost of Horesh-Yaron in the Ramallah region, living in a few trailers. Amazingly, the Defense Ministry is actually paying rent for these illegal trailers to the settlers-in order to protect them. Sources in the Central Command confirmed this, and said it was just one case out of many illegal outposts in the West Bank. In related news, data presented to Israeli defense leaders revealed that 1,000 olive trees belonging to the Palestinians were allegedly destroyed by settlers over the last few weeks. According to reports, the settlers came on particularly rainy and cold nights, when the IDF found it difficult to follow them to the groves near the settlements in the Nablus sector. They came with electric saws and destroyed hundreds of trees during six incidents. Finally, the Israeli Peace Now movement announced last week that the Housing Ministry published new tenders for building 150 new residential units in the settlement of Beitar Illit and another 78 in Efrat, bringing the total for 2005 to 1,131 tenders issued for such housing. (Arutz 7, 12/28/05; Ma'ariv, 12/22/05; Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/28/05; Ha'aretz, 12/28 & 30/05; Israel Radio News, 1/3/06; & Ynet, 12/26/05)

No Law, No God: Commenting about the ongoing unchecked criminal behavior of settlers in the occupied territories, Yael Paz-Melamed wrote, "This is the response of the IDF and the police to the establishment of 14 new outposts in the West Bank by hundreds of young people: 'This is just a Hanukkah vacation camp.' An additional fact: [a few] days ago, the Construction and Housing Ministry published tenders for the construction of 230 housing units in the West Bank. Another fact, the worst of all: some settlers, mostly young extremists, are making a laughing stock of the state, the rule of law and the law enforcement authorities, and they have good reasons for behaving that way. The connection between these three facts: the settlers in the West Bank were and remain the lords of the land, beyond the laws of the State of Israel, even beyond our own eyes, which are tightly shut to what is going on in the West Bank. Hooliganism runs rampant there, with no apparent response from the IDF and the police, and we are all silent. These days political leadership is drawing up party platforms, without providing the slightest response to the rising vandalism and violence of Jews towards Palestinians.

"Take, for example, the despicable act of cutting down Palestinians' olive trees that is committed by heartless settlers who have no God in their hearts. This abomination has been going on undisturbed for more than two years. The same group of settlers that lives near the village of Bilin, for example, and decided that Arabs get on their nerves, takes a big saw and goes out joyfully to cut down the livelihood, pride, and labor of the Palestinian inhabitants. Everybody knows about it because it was reported extensively in the media. Everybody sees it because the television cameras film the incidents, but it seems that nobody cares. We did not hear of even a single arrest and trial of one of those dangerous extremists, who carry out those acts of theft and destruction in the light of day, with no fear at all. All we saw were a few Palestinians throwing stones at those same lawbreakers, who laughed in their faces. Stones. Who cares? They do not hit their targets anyway because of the great distance between the attackers and the attacked.

". And is it any wonder if what we see today in the West Bank is the massive strengthening of Hamas at Fatah's expense? The Palestinians, who live in areas occupied by Israel, do not know other Israelis. For them, Israelis are those same rampaging people without heart or conscience who ill treat them mercilessly without any appropriate response from the law. And that is what turns the settlers into a real strategic threat against the State of Israel. There is no possibility of starting to end the conflict between ourselves and the Palestinians as long as all the illegal outposts and all those who cut down trees, loot shops, and commit disturbances against the Palestinian inhabitants are not immediately expelled. Why does no one employ expulsion warrants from the West Bank against those who time after time, with a big smile on their faces, sabotage olive trees and their crops? How did 500 Jews manage to turn thousands of Palestinian residents of Hebron into haters of Israel to the last drop of their blood? It's true that we can entirely despair of the police. But where is the army? Where is the GSS? Where are all of us? At this time the image of the country is being shaped for at least the next few years. The Labor Party, headed by Amir Peretz, must insert in its platform a promise to handle these settlers with a strict hand, as well as dozens of illegal outposts, all of which began like a summer camp and ended like a cancer. We have to expropriate the West Bank from the settlers and restore managing relations between us and the Palestinians to Israel's political leadership." (Ma'ariv, 12/29/05)

Poll Positions: According to last week's Geocartographia survey carried out for Army Radio, if elections were held today for the 120-seat Knesset, Kadima would win 42 seats, Labor 17, Likud 16, Shinui 2.5, Shas 9, the Arab parties 9, Meretz-Yahad 4.5, National Union 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 5.5, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 5.5, and the National Religious Party (NRP) 3. A Shvakim Panorama poll taken for Israel Radio's "Another Matter" found that Kadima would win 37 seats, Labor 20, Likud 17, Shinui 4, Shas 10, the Arab parties 8, Meretz-Yahad 4, National Union 3, Yisraeli Beiteinu 7, UTJ 6, and NRP 4. Friday's Teleseker/Ma'ariv poll gave Kadima 40, Labor 19, Likud 16, Shinui 6, Shas 9, the Arab parties 7, Meretz-Yahad 5, National Union 6, Yisrael Beiteinu 4, UTJ 5, and NRP 3. Finally, Friday's Dahaf/Yedioth Ahronoth poll gave Kadima 39, Labor 21, Likud 14, Shinui 5, Shas 9, the Arab parties 7, Meretz-Yahad 6, National Union 4, Yisrael Beiteinu 6, UTJ 6, and NRP 3. (IMRA, 12/30/05)

The Tea Leaves: Analyzing the results of the Ma'ariv survey, Nadav Eyal wrote, ".The Ma'ariv poll indicates stability in the political establishment. First comes Kadima. Afterwards comes the Labor Party with 19 seats, followed by the Likud. However, in effect, the polls this week and last week indicate the same trend: the Likud picks up seat after seat, slowly and steadily, and the Labor Party at the most maintains its power. Peretz's people are making a classic mistake by thinking that the fact that in the past it got 28 seats in the polls indicates that it will be easy for the Labor Party to make a comeback. Whatever it has lost will be very hard to regain.Those who think that the campaign ads or speeches at the public squares will change anything, are making a common mistake: the voters' decisions are made during the inactive period between events, as a result of the cumulative weight of the flow of information.Labor Party leaders will be encouraged by one important finding in [Friday's] poll: the socio-economic agenda, that Peretz has been continuously consistent about, it should be noted, gives a good fight against the security-peace issue among the public, when asked about the most significant issue affecting one's choice of party. If you add to this the issues of education and crime, it turns out that the civilian agenda is stronger. The hope of the Labor Party has not yet been lost." (Ma'ariv, 12/30/05)

China Cabinet? Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz's diplomatic team is formulating a platform calling for the long-term leasing of large West Bank settlement blocs from the Palestinians, adopting the model of Great Britain and China with regard to Hong Kong. The platform will also call for adopting the findings of the Sasson report on illegal outposts. Peretz has said in discussions with the team that the outposts should be dismantled in keeping with the law. A timetable will be set for final status talks with the Palestinian Authority, and will not include an interim agreement or a temporary Palestinian state. According to the platform, only if negotiations were to fail would unilateral steps be considered. The platform will state that talks will be held with the elected Palestinian leadership, but not with Hamas. The platform will also declare Jerusalem as Israel's undivided capital, but will allow for reexamining the status of the Palestinian neighborhoods and villages surrounding the city by raising the issue of municipal boundaries. The platform's "Hong Kong principle" refers to the agreement between Great Britain and China in 1898, under which the Brits leased the islands of Hong Kong for 99 years. When the lease ended in 1997, China took back the islands with a pledge to preserve their democracy. Using this model, the large settlement blocs-Maale Adumim, Gush Etzion, and Ariel-would remain under Israeli control in exchange for monetary or territorial compensation to the Palestinian state. [And at the end of 99 years, the settlement blocs would be given to China.] (Ha'aretz, 12/28/05)

The Great Divide: Attorney Col. (res.) Gilad Sher was one of the directors of negotiations with the Palestinians in 1999-2000 and was bureau chief for Ehud Barak. Commenting on the question of whether or not Jerusalem should be divided, he wrote, "When the borders of the country are decided in the future, we will have to consider a territorial compromise in Jerusalem. Just as it is possible to live without Gaza and Khan Yunis-it is also possible to manage without Issawiya, a-Ram, Kafr Akeb, or Sur Bahar. And we should get used to this, because this is the way to guarantee Israel a capital with a Jewish majority. The greater Jerusalem region will include, in the final status situation, two capitals: Jewish Jerusalem and Arab al-Quds, which will be divided by a clear and defined line of sovereignty. A quarter of a million Palestinians live in Jerusalem's current jurisdiction. They are not Israeli citizens and will not be; there is no justification for annexing them. On the other hand, the Old City and its environs must be kept whole and special arrangements made there, which ensure freedom of access and worship for members of all faiths.

"Nevertheless, under the shadow of Palestinian terror, it does not seem that a permanent arrangement in Jerusalem will be discussed soon. Its general lines can be described: what is Israeli-Jewish, i.e., west Jerusalem and the new neighborhoods built after 1967, will be one inseparable part of our Jerusalem. The Arab parts of East Jerusalem and the surrounding villages-will be allotted to the Palestinians. The Old City and the holy basin will not be partitioned, and a special regime will be applied there to preserve our links to the holy places to Judaism and ensure freedom of access and worship for members of all faiths. And what about in the meantime? A possible model for the Old City is a joint city council, under a special and semi-independent authority. This council would have limited authorities in security, law enforcement, public services, and infrastructure. It would, by consent, have courts to mediate and hear 'light' criminal cases. This would avoid, for now, the question of sovereignty, which would be discussed in negotiations on the final status arrangement, and give fair representation to each side. Such a model of cooperation that meets the needs of the residents and of the political leadership, has been developed in unofficial initiatives in recent years.

"When negotiations between us and the Palestinians are over, there will be a demilitarized Palestinian state alongside Israel on the basis of the June 4, 1967 lines, with agreed-upon changes, including the inclusion of the majority of the main settlement blocs which will be annexed to the State of Israel. The right of return of refugees to the State of Israel will not be recognized in any way-they will be rehabilitated in the countries in which they live, the Palestinian state, and other countries. Despite the constraint of the election campaign, we must prepare public opinion for the compromise that is necessary for the sake of our future, not by brainwashing and not the slogans. Better our leaders kill all their time in discussing the outline of the arrangement between the sides, because dialogue doesn't kill or wound. The majority of the public grasps that separation from the Palestinians is an essential emergency step for our future. In Jerusalem as well. To this end we must renew negotiations in the framework of the Road Map and continue with an uncompromising war on terror." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/18/05)