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Annual Survey of Settler's Positions - January 2006

The survey's purpose was to examine the settler's position regarding different topics on the agenda during the time after the disengagement plan took place and before the elections to the 17th parliament

The survey's purpose was to examine the settler's position regarding different topics on the agenda during the time after the disengagement plan took place and before the elections to the 17th parliament

Background
The entire settlement enterprise had been initiated and intended to lay claim to lands beyond Israeli's borders. Moreover, under the Likud and especially Sharon policies since 1977, the purpose had been to create a constituency in the territories that would oppose any territorial concession out of self-interest, situated geographically in such a way as to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state. There was no doubt that the settlements constituted, as intended, obstacles to compromise and peace with the Palestinians.

This is the reason the settlers viewed the Disengagement as a critical challenge and sought to prevent its implementation. This they did by innumerable political devices, court appeals, demonstrations, vandalism and traffic disruption, and most of all, scare tactics warning of violence and possible civil war. Once they realized that they had lost the battle to prevent the evacuation (as well as the battle for public opinion), they sought to convert the evacuation itself into a national trauma. The idea was to make it so distressful and abhorrent an act in the eyes of the Israeli public that no government would dare try to repeat it in the future by dismantling settlements in the West Bank.

The most important point, however: the settlers lost. Their defeat was not final - they will continue, obviously, to try to prevent further evacuations, but not only did they lose public opinion, but more critically they lost their effort to prove that settlements cannot be evacuated, even by a right wing government. Moreover, the extraordinarily rapid and efficient evacuation, absent bloodshed or real violence, demonstrated that neither civil war nor "national trauma" need accompany such efforts in the future.

Survey Aim
How have the settler's attitudes changed since the disengagement? In this survey we attempted to understand how the settler's view the future, do they fear that they will be evacuated next, and are they willing to agree to leave for compensation? How is their life defined in the settlements, regarding property and employment?

And most importantly how they will be approaching life after the disengagement, especially in attitudes towards the state and future conflict resolution plans and the upcoming elections.

Methods
The survey was unprecedented in its scope and was commissioned to question over 3,412 settlers over the age 18 who live in 120 different settlements throughout the West Bank.

Only one person per household was interviewed.

The survey was commissioned in December 2005 (with the changing political situation some questions were repeated in January 2006 to ensure relevancy).

The survey was held over the telephone from the computerized interview center MARKET WATCH, and it was duly noted to ensure that an equal amount of men and women were interviewed in each settlement.
Note that statistically the error rate, as in previous surveys, is 3-4%.

Findings
See attached the surveys in their entirety.

Results
Ownership of property and Employment: The results have shown that the majority of residents are actual house owners as well 77%. Israeli society as a whole is not a wealthy society, and the majority of people are not able to amass capital. Traditionally people who wish to invest money do so by purchasing a property and then renting it out for a fee. The average Israeli invests mainly in real estate. The fact that the majority of settlers are also their own house owners indicates that not many people have purchased property over the Green Line as an investment for the future, but rather as a solution to their own immediate housing needs. Thus also the relatively low prices of real estate in the settlements, indicates that the market and the buyers are aware that the settlements are not intended to be a long term investment, but rather a temporary housing solution.
In addition the large numbers 41%, who travel every day to their places of employment back within the Green Line, indicates once more that the settlements are not evolving into small self sufficient cities, and communities - but solution to housing needs. The lack of employment opportunities, 23% unemployed, in the settlements once again shows the low rate of investment and planning in regards to the ensuring the future of the settlements is in remaining part of Israel.

Effects of the Disengagement on the Settler Population
33% of the settlers believe that the disengagement was intended to divert public attention form the corruption cases facing PM Sharon, 31% believe it was a result of international pressure and 10% believe it was a result of terror and the intifada.

Reaction to Disengagement: 70% of the settlers believe that the evacuation of the Gaza settlements endangers the future of the West Bank settlements, only 19% believe that it strengthens the settlements in the West Bank.

72% of settlers believe that the disengagement will bring further evacuation in the West Bank, proves that the psychological effect the disengagement played amongst the settlers. They know that the future of the settlements has been decided and the ball is rolling.
Those that believe it was a one off event, and are still hoping that this will be the end of it.

34% of settlers believe the government will reduce the settlers budgets after the elections, while 35% believe it will remain the same, only 8% believe the government will increase it.

67% believe there is a high chance that the next Prime Minister of Israel will evacuate settlements east of the separation fence. 73% of the settlers are against such a move, only 21% support such evacuation.

Future Trends in Behavior: According to the survey results 45% of the settlers are frustrated at the smooth evacuation that was conducted in the summer. These settlers are now calling for a stronger resistance, with an increase in numbers who believe that the struggle for the settlements must include violence. This large percentage believes that the Yesha council is not fighting the government in a serious and effective manner and the support for the Yesha Council has declined. This reaction will make any further evacuations much more difficult to accomplish.

Evacuation, Compensation: 64% of the settlers believe the compensation given to those evacuated from Gaza was not enough. However the results also show that majority of settlers, 54%, believe that the government should give them and opportunity to leave the settlements. The fulfillment of the disengagement plan has meant that the option to leave a settlement is return for a fair compensation is now possible, and the majority is willing to leave and resettle on the other side of the Green Line.

Political Stands: The political affiliations as note in last surveys have not changed in any noticeable way. 63% define themselves as right wing, 17% as center, 5% as left wing, this is a slight increase (7%) to the right wing of the political map.

Concerning the election issues 83% of the settlers oppose a political settlement with the Palestinians based on the division of Jerusalem, while 13% would support it.

The majority 86%, does not believe that there is any connection between poverty in Israel (one of the main issues in the 2006 elections) and the investment over the years in the settlements. (This indicates that Peace Now must work harder in the public relation area in order to ensure that the linkage is clearer to the public.)


Conclusion
Most of the settlers believe that the disengagement was the first step in the direction of additional settlement evacuation, and wants the Yesha Council intensify its struggle against this.

However they also understand that despite the struggle there will be further evacuations, especially with the next government, particularly east of the fence.

The most pessimistic of the settlers is the religious population, and they are the section of the settler population that are willing to intensify the struggle against further evacuations.

For the full survey - click here

For the report in Ynetnews - click here