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THE CRISIS TODAY - An Insider's Briefing (Friday, August 4, 2006)

Israeli Security Expert Yossi Alpher offers a daily briefing during the elevated crisis in Israel...

Today's Briefing - Friday, August 4

"Nasrallah has Both Time and Rockets" by Yossi Alpher

Yesterday evening, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah offered Israel a new deterrent balance: if the IAF bombs Beirut, he'll fire rockets at Tel Aviv; if Israel ceases bombing Lebanese towns and villages, he'll stop firing katyushas at the Galilee. This, after a second day in which around 200 rockets landed in Israel; yesterday eight Israeli civilians were killed.

Israel's response was to bomb Beirut again last night. Nasrallah's threat against Tel Aviv is not new, and it appears that if he could, he would have launched at least one Iranian Zilzal rocket toward Israel's commercial center by now. (I write this from my home/office just north of Tel Aviv, well within the Zilzal's range.)

The IDF, then, is responding with disdain to Nasrallah's attempt to restore Hezbollah's deterrent profile. Apparently it still has some time to prove him wrong. UN Security Council efforts to end the fighting have for the moment bogged down in controversy between the United States and France regarding the sequencing of a ceasefire and the introduction of an international force. The Israeli civilian rear continues to support the war effort despite its losses and discomfort. And here and there, despite the rockets that still fall, some progress has been made against them: the IAF is apparently crippling Hezbollah's capacity to launch longer range rockets--Haifa has not been hit for a week--while progress on the ground in southern Lebanon has eliminated nearly 400 Hezbollah fighters and is pushing the short-range rocket launchers further north. That's why Minister of Defense Amir Peretz is arguing for an infantry and armor advance up to the Litani River, which in some areas is more than 20 km. from the border.

Nasrallah's rocket threats are matched by his newly-announced determination to reject any ceasefire that does not begin with Israel's withdrawal. This effectively neutralizes the government of Lebanon's more balanced ceasefire plan and renders any Security Council plan potentially stillborn. The Hezbollah leader might be bluffing on some of his threats, but after nearly four weeks of fighting we nevertheless have quite obviously not deterred him, not stopped his katyushas and not reached conditions for a workable ceasefire. At the current rate of attrition, it is estimated that Hezbollah could continue to fire rockets at Israel for another two months.

At the broad strategic level, Israel appears to be facing four options in the days ahead: keep pushing the rocket launchers further north and risk getting bogged down again in southern Lebanon; try some dramatic new military initiative; acquiesce in a UN-backed ceasefire arrangement that might solve little and could simply lay the foundations for the next round; and/or invoke a political initiative, such as an attempt to dialogue with Syria and involve it in a deal over Lebanon.

Looking further to the future, to the years ahead, next time around we need to be able to deploy an effective military solution for intercepting and destroying the katyushas in flight.


The Crisis Today-An Insider's Briefing is a new daily, internet publication of Americans for Peace Now. A new edition of The Crisis Today will be posted Tuesday through Friday morning by 9:00 a.m. for as long as the current crisis continues.

The Crisis Today is written by Yossi Alpher, whose views do not necessarily reflect those of Americans for Peace Now or Peace Now.


Link to APN's Crisis Resource Page



Links to previous Briefings:

August 3, 2006
August 2, 2006
August 1, 2006
July 31, 2006
July 28, 2006
July 27, 2006
July 26, 2006
July 25, 2006
July 24, 2006
July 21, 2006
July 20, 2006
July 19, 2006
July 18, 2006