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January 29, 2007 - Vol. 8, Issue 13

NO MILITARY SOLUTION; PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR; BACK-ROOM DEALS; PEACE WITH SYRIA; ISRAELI DEBATE OVER IRAN; SEX, LIES, AND VIDEOTAPE...

NO MILITARY SOLUTION: The terrorist attack in the Israeli resort city of Eilat that killed three this morning serves as another reminder that extensive military efforts alone are insufficient to protect Israelis. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert commented that "for a long time we've enjoyed relative quiet, but it must be said - a bogus quiet, in everything that is related to terror. In recent weeks we stopped many attacks. It was not always publicized... We will learn the details of this event in all its components, including the intelligence. We will check who sent the terrorist, in the name of what organization and from where he came. We will draw conclusions and we will learn the lessons." Striking a slightly different note, Knesset Member Avshalom "Abu" Vilan said that "the atrocious attack this morning in Eilat is an attempt by Palestinian terrorist organizations to distract public and media attention, from the internal war between the different factions in Gaza, into Israel." (Ynet, 1/29/07)

PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR: Around 30 Palestinians were killed and more than 68 wounded in intra-Palestinian clashes since Thursday night, following a week in which an assassination attempt against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas reportedly occurred and political figures were kidnapped. In the wake of this violence, Hamas announced that it was suspending all talks over forming a national unity government. Interior Minister Said Siam accused Fatah officials of trying to set off a civil war, while Information Minister Yousef Rizka warned that a civil war was imminent.

Indeed, 53.5% of Palestinians believed that they were witnessing a "civil war" even before these statements were made, according to a public opinion poll conducted by the An-Najah National University during January 22-24. The poll also found that 20.6% of respondents believed that violence between Hamas and Fatah will escalate, 42.4% said that it might, and only 3.4% predicted that it won't. The same poll found that 34.8% of Palestinians say that they support Fatah and 19.8% support Hamas. 29.5% of Palestinians would vote for a Fatah candidate for the Legislative Council, and 19.3% said that they would vote for a Hamas candidate. Similar margins were seen regarding a potential race for president, (with 29.0% saying that they would vote for a Fatah candidate and 19.0% for a Hamas candidate). In both scenarios nearly 40% are undecided or would boycott elections.

50.1% of Palestinians think that American and Israeli declarations in support of President Mahmoud Abbas' policies reduce the trust of Palestinians in his policies, while 12.9% said that such declarations reinforce trust. 49.5% believe that Hamas leader Khalid Mishal's declaration that Israel is a reality is a preface to Hamas' recognition of Israel; 40.1% disagreed. A plurality of 47.1% of Palestinians believes that firing rockets at Israel hurts the Palestinian national struggle. Asked whether they supported this rocket fire, identical percentages - 47.4% - came out in support and in opposition. 56.6% support armed operations inside Israel.

A Ha'aretz editorial Sunday on the intra-Palestinian violence urged a reappraisal of Israeli policy: "Because, even those who adopt the principle that no diplomatic talks can take place with those who do not recognize the State of Israel cannot accept that millions of humans under Israeli occupation can remain hostages to the lack of a diplomatic process. No less troubling is the view that the worsening of Palestinians' living conditions will result in the sort of political change that Israel would like to see. Israel is obliged to distinguish between the civilian population and the political process. It cannot wait until. a diplomatic breakthrough. We can no longer make do with dummy concessions, such as the removal of a few dirt barriers or a random $100 million transfer to the Palestinian Authority. Israel must propose a plan that allows for normal Palestinian life, employment, civil services and infrastructures, as is required from an occupier. This is not merely a legal obligation, but a humanitarian necessity. Furthermore, it would be a worthwhile political investment. An improved economic situation in the territories may also ensure the desired political choice." (Ma'ariv-NRG, 1/28/07; Ma'ariv 1/28/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/28/07; IMRA, 1/27/07; Ha'aretz, 1/28 & 1/29/07; Israel Radio, 1/29/07)

BACK-ROOM DEALS: Defense Minister Amir Peretz reportedly canceled a meeting with representatives of the settler movement to talk about the future of West Bank outposts on Thursday, following a leak about the meeting to the press. Peretz has emphasized the importance of involving the Yesha Council's representatives in decisions regarding West Bank outposts, but insists that this matter be discussed without media involvement.

The decision to cancel the meeting reportedly angered Yesha Council representatives, who had hoped to reach an agreement with the ministry as to which West Bank outposts would be evacuated voluntarily in exchange for the ministry's approval for other outposts to remain. Just before the meeting was supposed to take place, Yesha Council Chairman Benzi Lieberman sent a letter to Peretz saying that "the relationship between your Defense Ministry and the Yesha settlements, whose whole fabric of life depends and feeds on your ministry, has reached an all-time low.Even under left-wing governments who did not see eye-to-eye with us on the purpose of the settlements, there was never such disregard for basic needs." [Lieberman's letter is curious given this government's track record on settlements.]

Meanwhile, Peace Now documented new construction at four West Bank outposts: Givat Assaf, Ramat Gilad, Mitzpe Lachish, and Mitzpe Yitzhar. In earlier proceedings before the Israeli High Court of Justice the state acknowledged that it had both the right and the obligation to evacuate these very outposts.

Following the much-publicized confrontations in Hebron earlier this month, a ministerial committee headed by Peretz - and including Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Interior Minister Roni Baron - decided today on a series of steps against settlers who attack Palestinians: A special police force will be established to deal with law breakers, the use of restraining orders will increase, and state-funded institutions that act as centers of incitement for settlers will have their budgets cut. "We have to prevent the situation where it looks as if disturbances take place with the support of the regime," said Peretz.

But if the past is any guide, it may take some time for these decisions to be implemented. For six years the IDF prevented Palestinian from traveling on parts of the Hebron's main street - Shuhada Street, which connects Hebron from north to south and is lined with hundreds of shops. All of that was expected to change last month, after IDF attorney Harel Weinberg wrote to the Association for Civil Rights in Israel that the army was wrong to disallow pedestrian access. "A new order has been issued by the brigade's officials, which allows such passage, subject, of course, to a security check," wrote Weinberg. Yet, human rights activists who visit Hebron regularly were told by commanders in Hebron that Palestinians are still banned from traveling on Shuhada Street. The IDF Spokesperson's office did not dispute these facts, following an inquiry by Ha'aretz. (Ynet, 1/25 & 1/29/07; Ha'aretz, 1/25 & 1/29/07)

PEACE WITH SYRIA: A new organization calling for peace talks with Syria met on Sunday evening in Tel Aviv. Forum participants reportedly included former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin Shahak, former Shin Bet chief Ya'akov Perry, former directors at the Foreign Ministry David Kimche and Alon Liel, as well as authors, academics and intellectuals. A petition published by the new group states that avoiding efforts at reconciliation with Syria will be "an irresponsible gamble with the fate of the State of Israel."

"After the Lebanon war, a message from Syria was received, calling for negotiations," noted Israeli author Sami Michael. "The government, due to internal pressure, or preoccupation with other issues, or American pressure, has not answered this call. I think that ignoring the signal is detrimental for the government," he added. Michael also said that negotiations could pry Syria "from the Iranian hug." Liel has been invited to testify before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on the contacts he had with Syrian representatives starting in early 2004. (Ha'aretz, 1/28/07; Ynet, 1/28/07)

ISRAELI DEBATE OVER IRAN: Writing in The New Republic Israeli analysts Yossi Klein Halevi and Michael Oren contend that the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran prompted Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to change his position on peace talks with the PLO so that Israel could "neutralize what he defined as its 'inner circle of threat'--the enemies along its borders--in order to focus on the coming confrontation with Iran, the far more dangerous 'outer circle of threat.'"

According to Halevi and Oren, Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, "doesn't believe Iran would immediately launch a nuclear attack against Israel. But, he adds, it won't have to actually use the bomb to cripple Israel." Sneh predicts that a nuclear-armed Iran would end peace negotiations, because, in Sneh's words, "no Arab partner will be able to make concessions with a nuclear Iran standing over them." Second, Israel's military options would be limited such that Israel would have little defense against rocket fire on its northern and southern regions. Third, explains Sneh, foreign investment will dry up, and those Israelis who can will leave.

At the same time, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Vice Premier Shimon Peres, and Defense Minister Amir Peretz argued last week at the prestigious Herziliya Conference that Iran could be contained through a combination of deterrence and coalition building with moderate Arab states. Livni added that the "best Israeli interest" right now is to negotiate with the moderate Palestinian leadership. General Amos Gilad, who heads the political-military bureau of the Defense Ministry, noted the growing discomfort in many Arab states regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions. Gilad said Israel should do "everything it can" to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, reach out to Syria to get it to "change sides," and to "strengthen every possible contact with Egypt, the Saudis and of course the Jordanians."

Indeed Halevi and Oren report that senior Israeli officials "believe that events are actually working in Israel's favor and that, one way or another, Iran's nuclear program can still be stopped. As a result, some in the defense establishment are convinced that the military option can still be forestalled, even at this late date, by aggressive economic sanctions, forcing the Iranian regime to choose between its nuclear program and domestic stability."

Along these same lines, Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu told Yedioth Ahronoth this week that "economic isolation of countries has succeeded in the past in toppling regimes and changing their foreign policies." He added that "I have the impression that many forces can be found in the West who are willing to isolate Iran." Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly criticized Netanyahu's activism on this issue, saying "he should stop raising existential fright to gain more headlines." At the same time, Olmert's government is reportedly working on a position paper that explores Israel's becoming a member of NATO. Former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar said that the Iranian threat provides "an excellent occasion to enforce [Israeli] deterrence by making Israel a member of NATO." Aznar believes that if Israel joined NATO, "the perception in Iran would change, knowing that it's not only Israel [they are dealing with], but all of NATO."

Back in The New Republic article Halevi and Oren also note that the scenario of Iranian retaliation to an Israeli strike against Iran "leads some in the security establishment to call for renewed peace talks with Syria, aimed at removing it from the pro-Iranian front. The growing debate over Syria positions the Mossad--which says it's no longer possible to separate Damascus from Tehran--against [IDF] military intelligence, which believes that President Bashar Assad wants negotiations with Israel, if only to divert the threat of sanctions against Damascus for its alleged role in murdering Lebanese leaders." (The New Republic, 1/26/07; Jerusalem Post, 1/23/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/24/07; Forward, 1/26/07)

SEX, LIES, AND VIDEOTAPE, PART I: Last week's revelation that President Moshe Katzav will be indicted on rape charged has launched the race for the next president. A poll of Israeli public opinion found that 45% believe that Shimon Peres is the most suitable successor. Peres is trailed by former chief rabbi Yisrael Lau (22%), former Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin (15%), and Ambassador Colette Avital (8%). That same poll asked "who is more suitable to be defense minister," giving former Navy chief Ami Ayalon a 20 point lead over former chief of staff Ehud Barak (Ayalon 55%, Barak 33%). A poll of registered Labor Party voters asked about their choice for Labor Party leader. Barak came in first with 30%, followed by Ayalon (26%), Amir Peretz (19%), Ofer Pines (17%), and Danny Yatom (3%). In a runoff between Barak and Ayalon, however, Ayalon narrowly edges over Barak (Ayalon 47%, Barak 46%).

A cabinet reshuffle is awaiting the verdict in former Justice Minister Haim Ramon's sexual harassment suit, which is expected next Wednesday. Ma'ariv's Nadav Eyal explains that "if Ramon is acquitted, he will return to the Justice Ministry, but the prime minister will have to start making other appointments: the minister of science, culture and sports, the welfare minister, and a chairman for the Finance Committee. However, if Ramon is unable to return to the Justice Ministry, this portfolio will be available (and the leading candidate for this ministry is [Interior Minister] Roni Baron). It is possible that the Interior Ministry will also become available, and Olmert could take advantage of the situation to reach an agreement with Peretz on ending his term as defense minister and getting both the interior and welfare ministries instead." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/26/07; Ma'ariv, 1/29/07)

SEX, LIES, AND VIDEOTAPE, PART II: While the attention of most Israelis last week was focused on President Moshe Katzav expected indictment on rape charges and his lengthy televised denial, many missed the news that West Bank Story was nominated for an Oscar in the Short Film-Live Action category. The film by director Ari Sandel is a musical comedy "set in the fast-paced, fast-food world of competing falafel stands on the West Bank." A review in the Jewish Journal of Greater Los Angeles lauded "the very funny film featuring an all-singing, all-dancing cast. In it, the Israeli boy and the Palestinian girl join hands and hearts to settle a bitter rivalry between their families' competing West Bank falafel stands." (New York Jewish News 1/26/07; WestBankStory.com 1/27/07)