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March 7, 2005 - Vol. 6 Issue 31

Everything in Moderation; Non-Violence Gains Momentum; Real Arrests, Real Rockets; Big Trench Gets Ditched; The Check Is Not in the Mail...

EVERYTHING IN MODERATION:

The latest Israeli public opinion poll from Ma'ariv contained signs of growing moderation. When asked what Israel should do about last week's terror attack in Tel Aviv, 64% said that Israel should not respond except to allow the Palestinians to fight terrorism, while just 29% called for abolishing the cease-fire and returning to full military operations and targeted killings. Further, 53% said that it is not necessary to hold a referendum on disengagement and that the decisions of the cabinet and the Knesset are sufficient, while 43% thought a referendum should be held. (A separate Dialog-Ha'aretz survey released at the same time found that if a referendum were held on disengagement, 68.5% of the public would support the evacuation plan and just 27.6% would oppose it.) If Knesset elections were held today, the Ma'ariv survey found that in the 120-seat legislature-with the current number of seats in parentheses-the distribution of votes would be as follows: Likud 42 (40); Labor 21 (22); Shinui 14 (15); Shas 9 (11); National Union 10 (7); Yahad/Meretz 7 (6); National Religious Party 5 (6); United Torah Judaism 4 (5); and Arab parties 8 (8). A survey of just Shunui voters found strong support for disengagement (88.1%), as well as support for Shinui voting for the state budget since the government will fall if the budget isn't passed (69.2%).

Commenting on these results, Uri Rosen wrote, ".Immediately after the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, we asked the public a hypothetical question: what should Israel do if, God forbid, a suicide terrorist should succeed in perpetuating a terror attack? The results were surprisingly moderate. Only 34% supported the abolition of the cease-fire as against 57% who said that even in such a case it would be better to give the Palestinian leadership another chance. To these findings we added the reservation that they were merely theoretical. [Last] week, this was put to the test. And the results? They even surprised us. Not only did the percentage of those supporting restraint not lessen at the pictures of the attack, but it even soared from 57% to 64%. One possible reason is the quick pointing of the finger of blame in another direction, toward Syria and Hezbollah. Another possibility: the public is willing to do anything, including forgiving the Palestinians, in order not to return to the days of blood and fire.There was [also] a turning point in the level of support for a referendum where the opponents of a referendum had a majority for the first time (with even 56% of Likud voters opposing it-and that is a small scoop). Or, in other words: an accomplishment for the prime minister and a blow for the settlers." (Ma'ariv & Ha'aretz, 3/4/05)

NON-VIOLENCE GAINS MOMENTUM WITH PALESTINIANS:

According to a survey of Palestinians conducted by the Palestinian Center for Research and Cultural Dialogue, moderation is also on the rise among Palestinians. When asked if they believe that a non-violent massive movement against the Israeli occupation will make Palestinians achieve their independence, 58.6% said yes, while 35.6% said no. When asked if they support or oppose the suicide attack that took place on February 25th in Tel Aviv, 59.3% opposed the attack, 36.3% supported it, and 4.3% had no opinion. When asked if, 53 months into the Intifada, they believe that it served or harmed Palestinian interests, 68.2% said it harmed or considerably harmed Palestinian interests, 28.2% said it served or considerably served Palestinian interests, and 3.6% had no opinion.

More than one-third of respondents (38.2%) said that Israel is the party that gained the most during the Intifada, while 17.9% think that it was the Palestinians who gained the most, 15.5% said both sides, and 28.4% were noncommittal. Another interesting finding was that 50.7% of respondents either support or strongly support the Geneva Initiative by name, whereas 45.7% oppose it and 3.6% have no opinion. If general elections were held today, Fatah would receive 35.9% of the vote, Hamas 19.3%, national independents 5.5%, Islamic independents 5.5%, PFLP 5.3%, Islamic Jihad 3.6%, DFLP 2.9%, People's Party 2%, Al-Nidal Palestinians Popular Front 1.9%, Fida 0.4%, none of the above 9.6%, and no opinion 8.1%. (IMRA, 3/3/05)

REAL ARRESTS, REAL ROCKETS:

For the first time since the wave of terror attacks in 1996, the Palestinians have actually arrested terrorists. The arrests were made in the wake of the suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. A short time after that attack, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ordered top security officials to take a number of steps to show that the Palestinian Authority "will not agree to terror attacks." The most significant step taken was the arrest of a number of operatives from Islamic Jihad, the organization behind the terror strike. In the West Bank, the arrests were made by Tawfik Tirawi's people from the General Intelligence Service in the West Bank, while in Gaza, they were made by Moussa Arafat's people in the Palestinian police. The people arrested were not necessarily top Islamic Jihad operatives, and were not necessarily linked to the specific attack. Israel thinks the PA is not interested in an immediate frontal clash with Islamic Jihad, which would mean arresting its leaders, and it therefore decided to be content with the arrest of relatively junior operatives. Still, Israel is of the impression that there is indeed symbolic importance to the arrests, mainly because the last time arrests were made was in March 1996, when a wave of terror raged in Israel.

Nonetheless, the Israeli security establishment is far from being pleased. Intelligence information indicates that both Islamic Jihad and Hamas are using the relative quiet to prepare for the next wave of terror attacks. For instance, for the first time since the start of the Inifada, a Qassam rocket was found ready for launching in the Jenin area. Hamas succeeded in carrying out an attempted launching of two more Qassams, which landed in the West Bank. The third rocket that they planned to launch towards Israel is relatively primitive. But the fact that West Bank terrorists were about to attain for the first time the capability of attacking communities in the Jezreel Valley and the Sharon area with Qassams has aroused much concern among security officials. (Ma'ariv & Yedioth Ahronoth, 3/3/05)

BIG TRENCH GETS DITCHED:

The grand plan for digging a water-filled ditch along the Philadelphi Road, which would end the tunnel phenomenon once and for all, was disqualified by Israeli Attorney General Menachem Mazuz. Now the IDF is planning a much smaller and shallower ditch than had been envisioned, which would not force it to demolish Palestinian homes in Rafah. About six months ago, the IDF publicized a plan to dig a huge ditch along the Gaza-Egypt border, a trench about 30 meters deep and 120 meters wide that was supposed to be filled with water and make it impossible to dig smuggling tunnels underneath. In order to dig this ditch, the IDF wanted to demolish between 70 and several hundred Palestinian homes nearby. In light of the attorney general's recommendation, the Israeli government did not approve this plan. There's now a more modest concept on the table. There will be a smaller ditch that's part of a complex network of obstacles, including an eight-meter concrete wall, an additional concrete barrier buried underground, advanced fences, and a sophisticated border fence road. The implementation of this new plan is contingent on the continued presence of Israeli forces operating along the road. (Ma'ariv, 3/2/05)

THE GREENING OF PEACE:

Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) will resume cooperation on environmental issues, which ceased at the beginning of the Intifada. Palestinian and Israeli officials who attended a meeting called by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) decided that the joint environmental committee will resume its work in the area in two months. The committee-formed as part of the Oslo Accords-has not convened since September 2000. UNEP's council recently discussed the implementation of the recommendations made by a UN experts' team. The experts reported that the Palestinian population is exposed to severe health hazards caused by groundwater pollution, pirate waste dumps, and untreated sewage. The PA has trouble handling environmental issues, and Israel, which is responsible for the occupied territories, fails to deal with the problems and sometimes makes them worse, according to a UNEP report. (Ha'aretz, 3/3/05)

THE CHECK IS NOT IN THE MAIL:

Due to an error in the disengagement law, settlers who move voluntarily from Gaza to communities in the Negev will not necessarily be given a grant of tens of thousands of dollars, as advertised. In the law, the cabinet promised to extend a $30,000 grant to any settler who evacuates voluntarily and moves to Ashkelon or further south. However, an error was discovered in the wording of the law, according to which only those who move to Ashkelon or the Negev will receive the grant. Dozens of families have already signed an agreement for voluntary evacuation, and they are the ones who will suffer from the mistake. This refers to the families who are planning to move to the communities of Mavkiim and Bat Hadar, both of which are located south of Ashkelon but are not listed as communities in the Negev. Sources in the Prime Minister's Bureau and the Disengagement Administration said they will try to find a suitable solution without having to change the law. (Nana, 3/2/05)

LEVELING ON GAZA HOME DEMOLITIONS:

The Israeli security establishment has formed an unequivocal recommendation to give the settlement houses in Gaza in their entirety to the Palestinians. Defense Ministry director general Amos Yaron argued that demolishing the houses would only do Israel damage. It would cost Israel close to NIS 200 million to level the structures. Contractors would not only have to destroy the houses, but also remove the debris to Israel or bury it. Yaron added that the act of demolition is likely to delay the completion of evacuation by almost a month, and pictures of the demolitions broadcast around the world would be bad PR for Israel. "On the other hand, what will we get out of demolishing the houses? Nothing," he said.

Environment Minister Shalom Simhon added his weight to the military's decision, pointing out that highly carcinogenic asbestos could pose severe health risks if Israel demolishes the homes. "We must fervently hope that the Palestinians agree to us leaving the houses intact," he said, noting that damage to ground aquifers and to public health could be a consequence. "We are speaking here of tons of asbestos, which is an extremely carcinogenic substance," Simhon said. "This is a substance which we cannot recycle, and which will [take] many, many years to treat, and which is liable to cause real damage to citizens of Israel." Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority's Planning Ministry has expressed hopes of transforming structures in the northern West Bank settlements of Kadim and Ganim into a campus for a technical college after Israel evacuates them. In addition to a technical college or a small university, the sites could be converted into a tourist village or a complex of Palestinian Authority offices. (Ma'ariv, 3/3/05; Ha'aretz, 2/28/05; & Jerusalem Post, 3/1/05)

THE ENEMY WITHIN:

During a special cabinet session on growing incitement of extremists in the run-up to disengagement, GSS Director Avi Dichter warned that there are several dozen people in Israel who are prepared to assassinate the prime minister. These are folks who belong to the hard core of the extreme right-wing, some of whom are known to the security forces but continue to walk around freely. Dichter clarified that these dozens of activists are marked as potential for immediate danger, but are not operating in a vacuum. They are surrounded by additional circles of support: A further 500 people voice backing for political assassinations and a terror attack on the Temple Mount. A larger circle-numbering between hundreds and several thousands of people-justify terror. Around all these there are thousands more who oppose Jewish terror, but support resistance to the evacuation of settlements to the point of employing violence.

Dichter said that the most effective method of action is arrests and prosecution. As a second priority, he proposed to issue restriction orders and impose administrative detention, in cases of immediate threats. In response to queries about why the GSS has not yet filed any requests for administrative detention, Dichter explained that the timing of filing the request is a tactical consideration. Administrative detention orders are valid for three month, with an option for extending them by two months. If the state were to employ such orders now, the detainees would be released before the implementation of disengagement. The use of this tool should be considered at a later stage.

Minister Haim Ramon complained to Dichter, "I am not optimistic after what I have heard here. There is no sense of emergency. You are explaining how difficult it is to enforce the incitement laws. For my part, you can submit a temporary order for a year. We are in an emergency situation, and I do not sense that you understand this.Apply the `Mohammed test' to the extremists. If an Arab said that an assassination should be carried out, wouldn't he be in prison?" Turning to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Ramon said, "Sir, you are funding the incitement against yourself. Rabbis who receive a salary from the Prime Minister's Office are the ones attacking you and inciting. What is the problem to withhold their salary? Let them sue you in court. There is not another country in the world that conducts an incitement campaign against itself."

In response to the situation, the government accepted a decision to establish a unit in the Justice Ministry that will deal with expressions of rebellion and incitement. Justice Minister Tzipi Livni said the attorneys appointed to the unit will devote all their time to preparing indictments against suspected lawbreakers, appearing in court, and dealing with appeals from either side. Attorney General Menahem Mazuz also said that the law against incitement is currently impossible to apply because it requires that it be proven that statements will lead to violence, which can only be proven after the fact. He proposes to amend the law or to abolish the "probable grounds" clause to make it easier to prove. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 2/28/05; Jerusalem Post, 2/27/05; & Ha'aretz, 3/2/05)

BATTLE ON THE MOUNT:

Commenting on extreme right-wing threats to the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, Yehuda Litani wrote, "'Glory be to Him Who made His servant to go on a night from the Sacred Mosque to the remote mosque of which We have blessed the precincts, so that We may show to him some of Our signs; surely He is the Hearing, the Seeing," so the Koran (sura, 17, 1) describes the night time journey of the prophet Mohammed from Mecca to Jerusalem. The sanctity of the el-Aksa Mosque as the third most important religious site after the mosques of Mecca and Medina is based on this verse. While there are differing Muslim interpretations of the `most distant' mosque, locating it in other regions (among others, near the city of Medina), almost all Muslims today-more than a billion-believe that this mosque is on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. On this there are no differences between the two main groups of Islam, the Sunnis and the Shiites.

"Individuals and groups have either tried or planned, since the Six Day War, to attack the Temple Mount mosques. For example: Australian Michael Rohan, who torched the el-Aksa Mosque in 1969; Yoel Lerner, who planned to blow up the Dome of the Rock in the mid 1970s; Allan Goodman, who wanted to shoot his way into the el-Aska Mosque in 1982; the Lifta gang that tried to blow up the Dome of the Rock in 1984; the Jewish underground that planned to undermine the foundations of the el-Aksa Mosque in 1980; and apparently the Bat Ayin underground planned to attack the Temple Mount and a number of other mosques.

"The el-Aksa Mosque emerged unscathed from all these (except for the preacher's podium, believed to be a gift from Saladin and expensive cloth coverings that went up in smoke in 1969). But in recent months, security officials have learned that a number of extreme right-wing groups are planning to blow up this mosque to prevent the evacuation of settlements from Gaza and the northern West Bank. A reliable source told me [last] week, `these reports give us a serious headache. There is real fear of an attack on the el-Aksa Mosque by radical Jewish figures and this tops our list of fears-even more than the actual disengagement. These are extremely dangerous people, and unfortunately, we have still not managed to put our hands on them.' The GSS's department to thwart Jewish subversion is at this time working around the clock to locate those who want to attack the Temple Mount. Security has increased around the Temple Mount, backed by advanced electronic means. However, it is clear that this is not enough to prevent an attack from [afar]-by rocket or mortar, for example, from the Mount of Olives. Even if this does not topple one of the mosques, this would be enough to cause a terrible catastrophe.

"This is a battle of wits between unknown terrorists and the GSS. There is no question that those planning the terror attack are being extra cautious-lowering their profile, hardly talking on the phone, and not going to public places so as not to be exposed. They are not concerned about the results of their acts. If, God forbid, they are successful, the immediate result is obvious: more than a billion Muslims from southeast Asia to northern Africa will enlist in their masses to fight the Jews, the desecrators of holiness. Jewish zealots do not fear this. They believe that this is the stage prior to the establishment of a religious state controlled by the Sanhedrin. But most of us know that the materialization of this nightmare will leave only smoking ruins-a memory of the dream of the Jewish people to establish an independent state here." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 3/3/05)

A DUNAM HAS BEEN STOLEN IN YOUR NAME:

Israeli police are investigating suspicions that the former CEO of Himnuta, a subsidiary of the Jewish National Fund (JNF), purchased stolen Palestinian lands in exchange for bribes. JNF does not acquire land in the West Bank, but its subsidiary does so in its stead. Five suspects were arrested in the affair: Haim Cohen, who was Himnuta's CEO until two months ago; Lt. Col. Yair Blumenthal, head of the Civil Administration's infrastructure department; brothers Yosef and Yaakov Amram; and their lawyer, Eitan Tzachi. They are suspected of forging documents, illegal land dealing, and aggravated fraud. Police think the ring was responsible for at least five deals in which West Bank lands were stolen from their Palestinian owners and sold to Himnuta for a total of over NIS 20 million. The stolen lands are located near Hebron, Gush Etzion, Jericho, Maale Adumim, and Givat Ze'ev.

Cohen allegedly authorized Himnuta's purchase of the lands, knowing all too well that they were stolen. However, police don't believe that anyone else at Himnuta was aware of the fraud. Blumenthal is suspected of providing the ring with information acquired through his work about lands that would be suitable for fraudulent sale. He also allegedly approved the sales in his professional capacity. Police suspect he was bribed to provide these services. The Amrams and their lawyer allegedly bought the lands from Palestinian accomplices and then sold them for inflated sums to Himnuta.

Police think the motive for the crimes was primarily financial, but some of those involved may also have been influenced by a desire to "redeem" Palestinian lands and use them for settlement construction. "I have more than a gut instinct that there was also an ideological motive," said Chief Superintendent Eliezer Elhar of the Samaria and Judea District Police. Army sources concurred, noting that Blumenthal is an ideological ally of the settlement movement and good friends with many of its leaders. In his professional capacity, he often facilitated the establishment of illegal settlement outposts. (Ha'aretz, 2/28/05 & Jerusalem Post, 2/27/05)

OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH HAZARD:

According to a new report from Physicians for Human Rights-Israel, 60% of all cases of breast cancer in Gaza are diagnosed at a late stage, when cancer has already spread. In Israel, this figure is only 5-7%. The Gaza health system is unable to cope adequately with the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. For years, Israel has prevented Gaza physicians from taking specialized training at Israeli hospitals. Under closure, Palestinian doctors from Gaza are prevented from leaving for specialized training and further study, and medical students cannot complete their studies at universities in the West Bank and abroad. The report reveals that medications are not arriving in Gaza with regularity and that patients are not managing to get to medical treatments. Essential equipment for treating cancer, such as radiological equipment, does not exist in Gaza because of Israel's opposition, stemming from the use of radioactive materials in the treatment.

The survival rate for breast cancer among Jewish women in Israel is 70-75%, and for Arab women in Israel, 60-65%. These figures are steadily rising, and the rate of women who survive breast cancer in the world as a whole, particularly in developed countries, is growing. However, the breast cancer survival rate for women in Gaza is extremely low, just 30-40%, or even less. Besides late diagnosis, other factors influencing low survival rates in Gaza are the especially virulent form of the disease and the young age at which it appears. In addition, diagnosis opportunities and medical treatment are inadequate and many patients fail to succeed in leaving to obtain treatments not available in Gaza. (Ha'aretz, 3/3/05)

DRINKING IN THE VIOLENCE:

Israeli teenagers who have experienced terror attacks are more likely to consume alcohol than peers who haven't witnessed such violence, according to a new study from the Hebrew University. 52% of pupils between the ages of 15 and 17 who have been present at an attack reported drinking at least six times in the past year, as opposed to 38.7% of other students. Two out of three students in the first group acknowledged binge drinking at least once in the past month, while only 53.1% of the second group reported doing so. Binge drinking was defined as consuming at least five drinks within the span of a few hours. "One of our fears is that this is one of the coping mechanisms, an unhealthy one, of dealing with stress and anxiety," said researcher Prof. Rami Benbenishty. He noted that other risk behaviors, like smoking cigarettes and using drugs, didn't vary as much.

The study also found much higher rates of post-traumatic stress symptoms and depression among those students who had witnessed an attack. Some 58% were assessed as clinically depressed or verging on clinical depression, in contrast to a rate of 38% among the rest of the population. And 56% expressed at least five PTS symptoms, as opposed to 37% of those with no direct connection to a terror attack. Benbenishty pointed out that the high rate among even those children unconnected to the attacks shows that in Israel, "There are no kids who aren't scarred. Most of the population is affected." The survey was conducted on 2,750 students in Jerusalem, Haifa, and Hezliya during 2003 and 2004. Jerusalem had the highest rate of exposure to attacks, with 70% knowing someone who had been present at an attack, 60% knowing someone who had been injured, and 50% knowing someone who had been killed. (Jerusalem Post, 3/1/05)

SOCIETY AGAINST CREATIVE ANACHRONISM:

Attention all would-be Israeli wizards, dwarves, and elves-if you want to join elite IDF units, your fantasy life could cost you several hit points. According to Ynet, 18-year-old Israelis who tell military recruiters that they play Dungeons and Dragons are automatically given low security clearance. "They're detached from reality and susceptible to influence," the IDF says. Fans of the popular role-playing game had spoken about rumors of this strange IDF policy, but now the army has confirmed it. Thousands of Israeli youth play D&D, fighting dragons and demons using their rich imaginations. Game enthusiasts are aware of their problematic image in the army and prefer to maintain their anonymity. No wonder. A security official said, "One of the tests we do, either by asking soldiers directly or through information provided us, is to ask whether they take part in the game. If a soldier answers in the affirmative, he is sent to a professional for an evaluation, usually a psychologist."

More than half of the soldiers sent for evaluation receive low security clearances, thus preventing them from serving in sensitive IDF positions, the official said. "These people have a tendency to be influenced by external factors which could cloud their judgment [Editor's Note: Like spells of confusion?]. They may be detached from reality or have a weak personality-elements which lower a person's security clearance, allowing them to serve in the army, but not in sensitive positions." [Editor's Note: But good news for soldiers who fantasize about being powerful clerics with messianic visions-there's always room in the Settlers Council of Rabbis.] (Ynet, 2/28/05)