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June 4, 2007 - Vol. 8, Issue 30

OLMERT'S JULY SURPRISE?; ADDING NUANCE ON IRAN; A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS; HAIL TO THE CHIEF;

OLMERT'S JULY SURPRISE? Deputy Prime Minister and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz, who is traveling to Washington this week, reportedly believes that the time has come to launch a secret Israel-Syria channel to discuss the possibility of renewing negotiations. Mofaz is expected to tell Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that in light of Syria's military deployment "there is need now for an Israeli initiative with the United States' blessing in order to try to defuse the 'immense gasoline fumes that are threatening to catch fire in the region in the coming months,'" reports Shimon Shiffer in Yedioth Ahronoth.

Indeed "senior IDF officials believe that it is incumbent upon the government to set a close date for beginning negotiations with Syria. They believe that if negotiations are not begun, the risk of war erupting on the northern front this summer will rise," reports Nahum Barnea, who adds: "The assumption within the top tiers of the IDF is that beginning final status arrangement negotiations with the Syrian government will prompt Syria to abandon its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah and to stop helping Palestinian and Iraqi terrorist organizations. Syria will return to what is perceived as its natural place in the region - as a member of the moderate Sunni countries that are at odds with Iran."

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is reportedly exploring the possibility of resuming peace talks with Syria through a third party, possibly Turkey. Ha'aretz quoted Olmert saying that "my duty as prime minister is to examine [the negotiations option] even if intelligence evaluations say it's a deception and even when Western and other leaders warn me." Olmert is also said to have observed that "the price is clear. There may be a debate on the payment terms, discounts, etc. but the main question is what Israel would receive in return. Will it receive peace like [the one it has] with Egypt, peace like Britain and France have, or a deception: Give us the Golan, and all you'll get is an alliance between Syria and Iran and Hamas headquarters in Damascus."

The possibility of negotiations with Syria is expected to be one of the issues on the agenda when Olmert meets with President George W. Bush on June 19th.

Ha'aretz's Shmuel Rosner and Aluf Benn write about the domestic implications of the Syria issue: "For Olmert, there are a few advantages to the preoccupation with peace signals from Damascus: It helps him keep the Labor Party in the coalition and prove to the public that he is making every effort to prevent further conflict in the North. It's not clear what, if anything, will come out of it. Olmert's 'July surprise,' in the form of renewed negotiations with the Syrians, will simultaneously turn the national agenda upside down and boost the prime minister's leadership. But such a surprise will also threaten his coalition partnership with the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu and with Shas, and will give Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to rile the dozing opposition and bring it back to the public squares and traffic junctions." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 6/3 & 6/4/07; Ha'aretz, 5/31, 6/1 & 6/3/07)

ADDING NUANCE ON IRAN: "As for the option of a U.S. preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear installations," Deputy Prime Minister and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz "believes that special caution should be exercised due to the destructive consequences of a U.S. operation on the Israeli home front and on many countries in the region," reports Shimon Shiffer in Yedioth Ahronoth. Mofaz reportedly argued that an American offensive could set the entire Middle East on fire and cause immense damage in Israel and in Europe.

Even before this report, New York Jewish Week reporter James Besser noticed a change in how the Jewish community talks about Iran. "We're seeing more nuance in the community's response," said Hadar Susskind, Washington representative for the Jewish Council for Public Affairs. "Nobody is claiming that Iran isn't a serious problem, but there is a growing understanding that what we need isn't scary rhetoric but thoughtful action."

"One reason Jewish groups have been so vehement in their views on Iran is because that's what they're hearing from their community leaders - who are hearing it from Israel," explained an official with a major Jewish group that has taken an aggressive stance on confronting Iran to Besser. But now, said the source, "even many Israeli leaders are backing away from the Hitler and Nazi comparisons."

An American Jewish Committee survey from 2006 found that only 38% of American Jews back U.S. military action. An Americans for Peace Now poll due to be released later today shows even lower rates of support for military action and a high degree of support for engaging Iran diplomatically.

Ha'aretz's Yoel Marcus writes that "the time has come to stop going into a panic every time Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatens to destroy Israel. He is just a show-off with a very big mouth. The ayatollahs are the ones who say what's what and make the decisions in Iran. They will cut off his hands before he ever reaches the red button." (Ha'aretz, 5/29/07; New York Jewish Week, 6/1/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 6/4/07)

A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS: Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and officials in Israel's National Security Council have over the last few weeks raised the idea of bringing an international force to Gaza. European Union officials have said they would only consider a request to participate in such a force if it came from both Israel and the Palestinians. Livni is reportedly focused on efforts that would help stop arms smuggling, but government officials told the Jerusalem Post that these proposals are not "an operative program."

In a related initiative, Meretz-party Knesset Members Avshalom "Abu" Vilan and Zahava Gal-On have been making the rounds promoting a plan in which the Arab League would take responsibility for the Gaza Strip as part of "a package deal." The "package" would include negotiations between Arab and Israeli representatives on the Arab Peace Initiative, the exchange of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit for Palestinian prisoners, and a Quartet-backed multi-national force to be deployed for two to five years. The two Knesset Members have reportedly presented their proposal to senior Palestinian officials, including Finance Minister Salam Fayad, as well as ambassadors from Egypt, Jordan, European Union countries, and the U.S. They are expected to continue pushing their plan in Israel and abroad, including to Saudi figures.

In an op-ed, the two Knesset Members explain: "We suggest diplomatic action, because relying solely on military action without the backing of diplomatic action won't release Israel from the dead end and won't provide the requisite security. We've already been in this movie: We conquered Gaza. IDF forces acted freely in all of its territory - and the rockets continued to fall on the towns close to the Strip. A land incursion by the IDF into Gaza won't end the firing, and is even liable to intensify the chaos in the authority which only works to Israel's detriment. It is an Israeli and Palestinian interest to find a single agent, agreed to by both sides, who can take responsibility for what happens in Gaza. The multinational force - backed by the Arab League, will have two central roles - in the security and economic realms. The multinational force will be positioned inside Gaza, on the border with Israel and on the border with Egypt. It will separate the Palestinian population from the IDF, will minimize friction, and prevent firing of Kassams."

Vilan and Gal-On propose that "the multinational task force will be responsible also for the prevention of the humanitarian disaster taking place in the Strip. Its mandate will include a plan to rehabilitate the civil systems and aid for the construction of social cervices and infrastructures needed for a stable economy. Without transferring the Gaza Strip to an agent with international cachet, like the Arab League, the moral and legal responsibility according to international conventions for what happens in Gaza will continue to fall on Israel."

The two conclude that "those who analyze the status of the Palestinian government and reach the conclusion that the partner for dialogue is weak now are correct, but they err when they conclude that there is nobody to talk to. Israel must speak to the international community, to the Arab League and to the elected representatives of the Palestinian nation. The Israel interest at the moment is to break the diplomatic stalemate. A moment before sinking anew in the Gazan mud, it's worthwhile to reanalyze the political-security situation and see that there is a way to derive success from Gaza." (Jerusalem Post, 6/3/07; Ynet 6/1/07; Ha'aretz 5/30/07)

HAIL TO THE CHIEF: The election of Israel's next president will take place on June 12th. In a poll of Jewish Israelis, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres (Kadima) received 60% support, former Knesset Speaker Reuven "Ruby" Rivlin (Likud) got 22%, and Member of Knesset Colette Avital (Labor) had 6%. However, these results may have little relation to the outcome of the election, since the president is elected by the 120 members of the Knesset, rather than the Israeli public, and thus the election is likely to be determined by a combination of personal and party loyalties. As such, Peres enters this race as "the underdog, the man whose chances are not particularly high, and he is seriously taking into account the possibility that he could lose. He was favored to win in 1996 against Netanyahu [for prime minister], in 2000 against Katsav [for president] and in 2005 against Peretz [for party chairman]." observed Yuval Karni in Yedioth Ahronoth, who quoted a Peres associate sarcastically noting that "Peres is much readier to accept a loss today" Ha'aretz's Yossi Verter predicts that "barring a major surprise, the second round will apparently be between Peres and Rivlin. The race between the two is wide open, in the sense that no one can genuinely predict the outcome. When you put 120 MKs behind a curtain, God only knows what goes on there."

As the three candidates battle for the support of those 120 Knesset Members, the fate of Marwan Barghouti - the popular Palestinian leader sentenced to five consecutive life-term sentences for his role in the murder of Israelis in terror attacks - has entered into the campaign. All three candidates expressed a willingness to grant him clemency should the government make such a request. "I have no intention of torpedoing a prisoner release and, in any event, I'll act only in keeping with the law," Peres was quoted saying. "It is not within the president's purview to exercise judgment on political-security affairs," Rivlin told Yedioth Ahronoth. "Therefore, if a government decision is made to release prisoners in the framework of a political agreement, the president will serve solely as a stage in the execution process of the government's policy." Avital said that "the release of prisoners with blood on their hands is a political decision," adding that "I will not act independently on the subject; rather I will make my decision after receiving the opinion of the government, the security services and the justice system." (Ma'ariv, 5/31/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 5/31 & 6/3/07; Ha'aretz, 6/1/07)

PALESTINIAN BREAD: With U.S. backing, donor funds have reportedly started flowing into an account controlled by Palestinian Finance Minister Salam Fayad. The funds are supposed to be sufficient to pay government workers - including members of the security forces - at least half of their normal monthly wages.

In a May 14 letter to the European Union, the U.S. government said donor funds can be channeled to Palestinians through the PLO account controlled by Fayad. U.S. officials said the objective of providing the assurances was to ensure that banks felt comfortable transferring funds to the PLO and, in turn, to strengthen Palestinians who support a negotiated two-state solution to the conflict.

Since getting the green light from the Bush Administration, the PLO account has received at least $22 million from Qatar. Saudi Arabia is sending $50 million. Norway is sending $10 million. In addition, the United Arab Emirates reportedly transferred 80 million dollars to the Palestinian Authority's Finance Ministry on Saturday.

Fayad had promised government workers they would receive at least half their normal salaries at the beginning of each month through the PLO account and the Quartet's Temporary International Mechanism (TIM), which plans to pay about $30 million a month to public employees and pensioners in coordination with Fayad. The TIM payments go directly to beneficiaries, sidestepping the Hamas-led government, and include all workers except those in the security services. It remains unclear what impact the payments will have and how long they will continue. (Reuters, 5/28/07; AFP, 6/3/07)