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July 2, 2007 - Vol. 8, Issue 31

ON THE HORIZON; MORE THAN WORDS; ROADBLOCKS TO PEACE?; CHANGING TUNES; EXTENDING AN OLIVE BRANCH

ON THE HORIZON: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's approach to the schism in Palestinian government was evident at last week's Sharm el-Sheikh summit: "The new PA government [in the West Bank], which recognizes Israel's right to exist as well as the solution of two states for two peoples and negates terror and violence, is a government that we recognize and will work with in order to implement the Road Map and advance our goals." At the same time, Israel "will not cooperate with these forces [who took over Gaza], who wish to lead the region into ruin and prevent the moderate Palestinian people from realizing its aspirations." In order not to punish the Palestinian population in Gaza, Israel "will continue to provide this population with electricity, water, medical services, food and medications, in order to prevent a humanitarian crisis."

Olmert announced a number of goodies that the new PA government in the West Bank will receive: Israel "will continuously pass on the tax monies which we collect; we will renew the security and economic cooperation between us; we will improve the freedom of movement of the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria in a significant manner; we will renew and expand trade relations between us in Judea and Samaria, which will lead to economic well-being. The residents of Judea and Samaria will feel that the choice of a path which is not terror and violence, but rather a path of dialogue and peace opens up new political possibilities and leads to a better life, one which is more comfortable and tranquil."

Indeed, Israel transferred $118 million in withheld tax revenues to the Palestinian government on Sunday. The remainder of the tax revenues, collected by Israel on behalf of the Palestinians, is expected to be transferred to Abbas' government within six months.

The three Arab leaders at the four-nation summit clearly asked Israel to go beyond these measures and open negotiations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said: "I ask Olmert's partnership to begin serious negotiations, according to an agreed upon timetable, for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem, which will live in peace and security besides its neighbor, Israel." "I became joyful, as I saw agreement from our perspective about breaking the present freeze," said Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Meanwhile, King Abdullah of Jordan said: "The opening of serious negotiations necessitates supporting Abu Mazen [another name for Abbas] and the removal of the siege from the Palestinian people."

The calls to renew negotiations are also coming from within Olmert's cabinet. Ha'aretz columnist Akiva Eldar wrote that Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni "is explaining to those in Jerusalem that salvation will not come from releasing tax monies. She left no doubt in the hearts of her listeners that if it were up to her, she would bring entirely different baggage to the summit." Indeed Livni said last week that "Israel must clarify with the Palestinians the possibility of reaching agreements on all of the disputed issues." Livni also said that "The mistake of Oslo is that we left the question of the Palestinian state, the borders and the refugees for the end."

Veteran Ha'aretz Palestinian-affairs columnist Danny Rubinstein explains that Israel's approach has "one chance of success," which "depends on whether an offer of a genuine alternative is made to the Palestinian people. What is now on the agenda is transfer of financial assistance to Abbas in the West Bank. Most of the tax monies that the government of Israel has confiscated from the PA will be returned, and this will be done on condition that Abbas fights against terrorism. The United States and other countries will also contribute funds to the emergency government of [Palestinian Prime Minister] Salam Fayyad. The Israel Defense Forces will lift a few roadblocks, perhaps even evacuate the Havat Maon outpost again, and maybe even evacuate another illegal outpost that is uninhabited."

"This, of course, is not an alternative," writes Rubinstein. "All the efforts to crush Hamas without undertaking a dramatic step such as pushing for an accord along the lines of the Arab Peace Initiative will be meaningless. The political reality and the living conditions in the Palestinian territories since September 2000 have prepared the ground for a Hamas victory, and without offering a genuine alternative, Hamas will not be defeated - and may even continue to succeed."

It is clear that the Palestinian public does not perceive the existence of such a credible alternative. 70% believe the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or nonexistent, according to a new poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). The poll also found that if new parliamentary elections are held today, Fatah would receive 43% of the vote, the same percentage it received three months ago in PSR's March survey. But support for Hamas drops modestly from 37% three months ago to 33% in this survey. If new presidential elections are held today and the only two candidates were Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, 40% would not participate in these elections. Among those who would participate, 49% would vote for Abbas and 42% for Haniyeh. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, non-participation would drop to 31%. Among those who would participate, 59% would vote for Barghouti and 35% for Haniyeh. (Israel Foreign Ministry, 6/25/07; Ha'aretz, 6/25 & 6/26 & 7/2/07; Ma'ariv, 6/26/07; PSR, 6/28/07)

MORE THAN WORDS: At last week's summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unexpectedly announced that the next Israeli Cabinet meeting would review a proposal for the release of 250 Fatah-affiliated prisoners from Israeli jails. This gesture was understood as one in a series of actions that Israel would undertake to bolster the credibility of the Fatah government. "I do this because it is important to me that all Palestinians know that those who are ready to maintain relations of peace and reconciliation with us will receive a hand extended in reconciliation and acceptance," explained Olmert.

Yet, the item did not come up at Sunday's Cabinet meeting. The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel was having a hard time identifying 250 Fatah security prisoners who have been in jail for a long time but do not have "blood on their hands." Government officials now reportedly say that the issue will be addressed at next week's cabinet meeting.

Olmert's announcement sparked a great deal of debate on prisoner releases. "I support the release of Palestinian prisoners, even those with `blood on their hands', as long as they are adults . they won't go back to terror," said Environment Minister Gideon Ezra, a former head of Israel's General Security Service. Knesset Member Yitzhak Levy (National Union-NRP) said that he would agree to the release of his daughter's killers in the context of a deal that would release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who is being held captive in Gaza. Levy's statement, however, suggests that the prisoner release be part of a deal with Hamas, and not as a gesture that would bolster Fatah.

London-based, Al Hayat reported that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas requested that Marwan Barghouti, a popular Palestinian serving five consecutive life sentences, be included in the release. "The release of Barghouti is the most correct step that Israel can take at this stage," said Ashraf Ajrami, the Palestinian minister for prisoner affairs, adding "it is better for Israel to release prisoners for Abu Mazen, not for Hamas. It is better to do it as a gesture of good intentions in the framework of a political move, and not as a deal under coercion."

An Israel Radio poll released on Wednesday found that 57% of Israelis support, and 37% oppose the release of Fatah prisoners as Olmert proposed. 64% oppose the release of Barghouti. A Yedioth Ahronoth poll found that 61% of Israelis are prepared to release "hundred of prisoners, including murderers, in exchange for Gilad Shalit." (Israel Foreign Ministry, 6/25/07; Ynet, 6/27/07; Ma'ariv, 6/27/07; Jerusalem Post, 7/2/07; IMRA, 6/28/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 6/26/07)

ROADBLOCKS TO PEACE? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today that Israel intends to remove roadblocks between Palestinian towns in order to grant Palestinians "increased freedom of movement." A Peace Now report on roadblocks released Wednesday reveals that there are 560 roadblocks in the West Bank, of which 93 are manned checkpoints and 467 are permanent structures, such as gates, cement blocks, and earth mounds. Only 35 manned checkpoints - and nearly none of the roadblocks - control access between the West Bank and Israel, while the remainder only impact traffic within the West Bank.

"These checkpoints don't prevent terrorists from infiltrating into Israel," Peace Now's Hagit Ofran told reporters on Wednesday at a checkpoint roughly half-way between Bethlehem and Ramallah, where Palestinian travelers would have to face at least one additional checkpoint if they wanted to enter Israel. If Olmert "wants to show he is serious about going towards some kind of political negotiation, the easiest thing to do is to ease traffic in the West Bank," Ofran added. It remains unclear how extensive Olmert's move to remove roadblocks will be or when it will be carried out. The United Nations says the number of checkpoints has increased more than 40 percent since Israel promised in 2005 to reduce the barriers.

A statement released by Peace Now suggested that decreasing the number of roadblocks would give the local Palestinian population a "sense of normalcy" and help Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas "prevent the West Bank from becoming another Gaza." Peace Now also observed that checkpoints are dangerous places for Israeli soldiers and use up a great deal of military manpower. "Each checkpoint requires at least 6 soldiers per shift for many hours of the day, using a large portion of the army's personnel," noted Peace Now. (Washington Post, 6/26/07; Ynet, 6/27/07; Ha'aretz, 6/27 & 7/2/07; Peace Now, 6/27/07)

CHANGING TUNES: The outpost issue is back on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's agenda, according to Israeli political sources, who told Ha'aretz that "this year we will see the evacuation of outposts." The unnamed sources said that Olmert is motivated by two factors: Commitments that Israel made to the United States, and legal proceedings, including a petition filed by Peace Now before the Israeli High Court of Justice regarding the evacuation of Migron, the largest unauthorized outpost. In these proceedings, Israel has already committed to evacuating Migron, but it has asked for a series of extensions before taking action. Chief Justice Dorit Beinisch requested an update on the progress of the state's evacuation plan by July 8th. The political sources speaking to Ha'aretz explained that "we can ask the High Court for further extensions, but Olmert is planning to deal with the issue seriously." (Ha'aretz, 6/28/07)

EXTENDING AN OLIVE BRANCH: In an unusual move, settlers from the unauthorized outpost of Adei Ad planted hundreds of olive trees in a Palestinian-owned grove on Tuesday. The settlers were following orders issued by the Civil Administration, which - after a complaint by a Palestinian farmer - discovered that 300 trees had been stolen from this grove and replanted in the settlement and along the access road leading to it. The Civil Administration ordered the settlers to replant 300 trees - 140 of the original trees, 40 mature trees from a different location and another 130 young trees - and to set up an irrigation system at the grove.

Pinhas Wallerstein, chairman of the Benjamin Regional Council where Adei Ad is located, insisted that there was no theft here to begin with, and that the grove was not Palestinian owned. A senior Civil Administration source told Ha'aretz that its investigation concluded that the land is Palestinian-owned. Muhammed Mukbal from the village of Karyut, told Ha'aretz that the trees were planted in 1965 on a plot he inherited from his father. The theft of the trees was not his first clash with local settlers. Last fall, the Israeli military provided soldiers to accompany him during the first day of the harvest. But when the soldiers were not there, settlers reportedly beat him and his family. Mukbal even identified one of his assailants as being present at the replanting.

Israeli attorney Michael Sfard, who specializes in West Bank property rights, says that theft of trees is a daily occurrence in the West Bank, especially in areas where Palestinians' access to their land is restricted. "I cannot remember a case in which the Civil Administration intervened to replant the trees," he added. A Ha'aretz editorial praised the Civil Administration's extraordinary action in this incident: "Uprooting trees is a deplorable and illicit phenomenon that characterizes the way settlers harass their hapless neighbors. It focuses on olive trees, a source of revenue for their owners and a symbol, because of their longevity, of an ancient claim to the land. In most cases the trees are cut down simply as vandalism, but the Civil Administration suspects that at Adei Ad, those uprooting the trees are also thieves... In the case of Adei Ad, the Civil Administration is worthy of praise." (Ha'aretz, 6/24, 6/27, & 6/29/07)