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July 30, 2007 - Vol. 8, Issue 35

RETURN OF THE PROCESS; SAVING OLMERT; PALESTINIAN POLITICS; FACTS ON THE GROUND;

RETURN OF THE PROCESS: "I resolve to create a track that will allow me to hold serious discussions with Abu Mazen [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas]," said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Wednesday. "Just so it's clear, [Abbas] carries full responsibility and he is ready to take a risk. There are risks for Israel as well, but we are strong enough to take that risk," added Olmert, who noted that there is no timetable for the negotiations.

Ha'aretz correspondent Aluf Benn explains that Olmert is proposing negotiations over "the characteristics of the Palestinian state, its official institutions, its economy, and the customs arrangement it will have with Israel. After an `Agreement of Principles' [is reached], the two sides will tackle the more sensitive diplomatic issues, like final borders and the transit arrangements. In the prime minister's view, this is not the time to deal with the minute details of the agreement, because it will be very difficult to reach agreement on final status issues, such as borders, Jerusalem and the refugees. These, Olmert proposes, should be left to the end of the negotiations."

President Abbas, however, does not want to postpone talks on final status issues, though he is prepared to defer the implementation of a final status deal. In an interview with Ma'ariv, Abbas said that Israel and the Palestinians "need to reach a final formula. An end game. That is the first thing. Let's get to that, and afterwards we will go to carrying it out in stages, step by step. The Palestinian people need to know what the final formula is, where it is going, because this cannot be drawn out any longer. It is likely that the implementation will take time, but that does not matter. The main thing is that we know the end result from the start."

Despite this disagreement, Israeli and Palestinian security forces have resumed cooperation. IDF Brigadier General Yoav Mordechai, head of the Civil Administration, told the Jerusalem Post that Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces are beginning to demonstrate "positive signs" and have started rounding up wanted gunmen and collecting weapons throughout the West Bank. "The IDF continues to have freedom of operation, but we are allowing the PA to conduct their own operations and we are starting to see signs that their forces are restoring order and are arresting some people and interrogating them," he said. Ha'aretz reported on Friday that information provided by Palestinian security forces helped Israeli security services in thwarting planed terrorist attacks. The current renewed cooperation is seen by some to be a preliminary step before Israel turns over control of Palestinian cities back to the PA. (Ha'aretz, 7/25 & 7/26/07; Ma'ariv, 7/27/07; Jerusalem Post, 7/27/07)

SAVING OLMERT: Examining Ehud Olmert's proposal to negotiate an Agreement of Principles on a Palestinian state from the Israeli domestic lens, Ha'aretz correspondent Aluf Benn notes that "the people around the prime minister" are realizing "that there is no substitute for an Israeli diplomatic initiative that will extricate Olmert from his public opinion troubles and make a mark in the history of the state. If there is to be a public debate, better it take place on a peace agreement and withdrawal from territory than the Cremieux Street house, Bank Leumi and the Investment Center, [all are scandals surrounding the prime minister]. It is preferable to fall on one's sword as someone who is struggling for the future of the country, and not be humiliated as someone constantly entangled in trivial matters."


With this in mind, Benn identifies seven of Olmert's problems that are addressed by the proposal: "First, he is taking the initiative, leading the public and political agenda and striving to change reality. Second, the initiative underscores the message that Israel wants an agreement and is not seeking excuses to stay in the territories. Third, it responds to the international demand to provide a `diplomatic horizon' for Palestinian moderates. Fourth, Olmert wants to give up territory, even unilaterally. If he signs Abbas onto the deal, he will achieve something for the merchandise he was ready to give away for free. Fifth, the deal he is proposing focuses on changing reality in the West Bank and Gaza, and sets aside the refugee problem, whose solution is not an essential condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Sixth, the formulation of the details and the implementation of the agreement, which involve significant difficulties for both sides, will wait for the approval of the Agreement of Principles in Palestinian elections and a Knesset vote. This means that much time will pass between the signing ceremony and the evacuation of the settlers - time that can be used to garner public support and isolate the move's opponents. Seventh, the prime minister's expected political and personal advantage should not be ignored. Instead of his attempt to be convincing that the Second Lebanon War was successful, which falls on deaf ears, he should respond to the will of the great majority of the public, which supports dividing the land and a Palestinian state. If he radiates credibility, he may even improve in the polls, and his declared intention to run for another term against party leaders Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak will seem serious and possible."

Recalling Olmert's announcement last week that he will run for re-election whenever the next elections are held, Yedioth Ahronoth's Sima Kadmon writes that "Olmert is not stupid. Nor is he blind. He sees what we all see. He reads his situation as an experienced politician like him knows how to read it. Nevertheless, something has happened. Something in the atmosphere has changed. And it was not just the supportive atmosphere at the Prime Minister's Residence, where he was surrounded by friends and supporters, that induced him to say that, nor the statement by Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon, that in his view the next election will be in 2010, and that the next prime minister will be Ehud Olmert. Something in the public ambience is leading Olmert to believe that his political career is not yet over and that things could still change, that the war was a big mishap that took place at the beginning of his premiership, and if it had not happened he would be a stronger and more popular prime minister than Barak or Netanyahu ever were."

"From a political point of view Olmert is right," continues Kadmon. "Today there is no possibility of bringing down the government, neither from inside Kadima nor from outside it. From a coalition perspective, Olmert's seat is secure, and the maintenance works will increase with the entry into the government of Haim Ramon, one of whose political aims is to prevent early elections and to ensure that Olmert serves his full term in office. But it is not only Olmert's political durability. It is also the final report of the Winograd Committee, which will be delayed-so it is widely believed-at least until March, or even April." One report last week suggested that the committee's report might only be released in a year or two.

"Therefore Olmert's problem is not a matter of politics, but a matter of public opinion," concludes Kadmon. "There has probably never been such a yawning gulf between political stability and the prime minister's public standing. When Sharon's government almost collapsed, and his situation inside his party was catastrophic, public support for him was so high that nobody dared touch him. Olmert suffers from the opposite problem. His public standing is so fragile that it looks as though the slightest breath of wind would topple him from his seat." (Ha'aretz, 7/26/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 7/25 & 7/27/07)

PALESTINIAN POLITICS: The Palestinian Authority government platform published on Friday made headlines in Israel because it does not include any reference to armed struggle for the first time. Instead, government officials are stressing a commitment to President Mahmoud Abbas' call for a "popular struggle against the Israeli occupation." According to the new platform, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayad's government will seek to establish a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 boundaries with Jerusalem as its capital, as well as a just and agreed solution to the Palestinian refugee problem.

A poll of Palestinian public opinion carried out last week discovered that West Bank Palestinians ranked paying the salaries of its employees as the top priority for the new Palestinian government (8.5 on a scale of 1-10). This was followed by improving economic conditions (8.3), restraining the chaotic security situation in the West Bank (7.8), restoring dialogue between Hamas and Fatah (6.5), and extending control over Gaza (6.1). Fayad's government reportedly began to pay the salaries of Palestinian civil servants, including many in Gaza, this month. Fayad's government is reportedly not paying the salaries of PA employees in Gaza who ignored his call for them not to cooperate with Hamas. Employees hired by Hamas in the past year are also not receiving salaries form Fayad's government.

The poll conducted by the research center of an-Najah National University in Nablus also found that 72.4% of Palestinians - in both the West Bank and Gaza - supported the notion that arms should only be in the hands of members of the security apparatuses. Yet 65.8% rejected asking "wanted" people to hand in their weapons to the PA. 53.4% thought the security situation in the Gaza Strip had deteriorated since Hamas assumed control. 60.8% of those polled expressed concern that last month's events in the Gaza Strip could be repeated in the West Bank.

An overwhelming majority of Palestinians - 63.3% - believe that early legislative and presidential elections in the Palestinian Authority could relieve the present political impasse. 70% support early presidential elections. 68.5% support early parliamentary elections. 74.6% said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 54.4% said that they will give their votes to Fatah's candidates; 16.4% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.

President Abbas is reportedly planning to amend the election law to do away with regional districts and have future elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council be only a contest between nationwide lists. Regional constituency elections are believed to have helped Hamas win a majority in the last election. (Ha'aretz, 7/27, 7/29 & 7/30/07, An-Najah National University, 7/29/07; Israel Radio, 7/27/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 7/24/07)

FACTS ON THE GROUND: Right-wing activists continued to scuffle with Israeli security forces last week. On Thursday, 21 were arrested as they attempted to march to the site of the former Gaza settlement of Nissanit. The march was led by Rabbi Shmuel Eliyahu and Knesset Member Uri Ariel. Four protesters climbed the security fence into Gaza and had to be returned to Israel by troops from the Golani Brigade. On Wednesday, settlers attempting to establish a new settlement they've dubbed "Eitam Hill" clashed with Border Police. Six were arrested at this site near Efrat including Rabbi Moshe Levinger of Hebron. Leaders of right-wing parties in the Knesset also petitioned Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Wednesday to refrain from evicting settlers who are squatting in the Hebron marketplace.

Ha'aretz's editorial on Sunday connected these events with the diplomatic process, observing that "anyone with eyes in his head knows the land will be divided between the Israelis and the Palestinians, along borders similar to the pre-1967 lines, and that the refugee problem will be resolved through a reparations arrangement. Every few years, there is an attempt to move toward such a diplomatic division, and the moderates suffer a resounding failure as radicals on both sides undermine compromises by claiming `it's all mine.' The settlers think - correctly, by and large - that every failed round of talks further strengthens them, and that time is on their side. But what is good for the settlers is bad for the country. Last week, Moshe Levinger and Daniella Weiss were once again clashing with Israel Defense Forces soldiers on hilltops. Another Sebastia [site of a 1976 standoff between settlers and the IDF] at Homesh, another house commandeered by squatters, another expansion of an existing settlement, another infiltration of an Arab neighborhood. If Israel's strategic goal is to live in peace with its neighbors, it must work harder to block the settlers. Anyone who does not want a historic compromise is bolstered by the violence and suffering the sides cause each other."

The editorial also noted that the "disengagement from Gaza, which is considered a failure, was not carried out by agreement with the Palestinians. But despite the Qassam fire, nobody can imagine another solution to the conflict other than each side assembling in its own independent country. Ehud Olmert's government is powerful in the Knesset and weak among the public, but the diplomatic positions it is putting forward vis-a-vis the Palestinians are held by the majority. The public does not support the evacuees who want to return to Homesh. [Palestinian leaders] Abbas and Fayad claim this is also the case on the Palestinian side, and that if a fair agreement is placed on the table and put to a referendum, a majority of Palestinians will support it. We currently have the opportunity to draft such an agreement, even if its implementation is postponed or partially executed according to Ramon's plan, which calls for a withdrawal by agreement, and the deployment of an international force in the area. Since the solution is really not in dispute, and both sides have learned and suffered much from the second intifada, we may be able to come to the international conference being planned for this fall with more than an agreement of principles, and have the moderate Arab states help promote it." (Jerusalem Post 7/26/07, Haaretz 7/26 & 7/29/07; Ma'ariv 7/26/07; Israel Radio, 7/25/07)