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Annapolis Countdown - October 26, 2007

Annapolis buzz was felt throughout the week in Washington much more than in Jerusalem, Ramallah, Cairo or Amman.

Go HERE to APN's special website section on the Annapolis Conference

Previous Editions of the Countdown - October 19, October 12

Although the week ended today with a meeting between Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss preparation for the upcoming summit, Annapolis buzz was felt throughout the week in Washington much more than in Jerusalem, Ramallah, Cairo or Amman.

The Olmert-Abbas meeting was reportedly positive. The heads of the Palestinian and Israeli negotiating teams took part, and Olmert reportedly promised to Abbas that Israel will not cause a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The two did not settle, however, the debate over the linkage between the political statement that they are trying to co-author and the all-but-forgotten "Roadmap" peace-plan. Olmert is reportedly demanding that any progress in implementation of future agreements will be conditioned on fulfilling the requirements of the Roadmap. The Palestinian negotiators contend that they are fulfilling the requirements of the first phase of the roadmap - dismantling the terrorism infrastructures in the West Bank - and that it is Israel which is not doing its part: dismantling illegal settlement-outposts and freezing all settlement activity. The two negotiating teams agreed to reconvene late next week.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, upon her return from another trip to the region, briefed members of the House of Representatives on her trip and on U.S. policy in the Mideast. She said she was confident that the meeting will be convened and spoke about the sense of urgency with which the administration is approaching its current push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. "Our concern is growing that without a serious political prospect for the Palestinians that gives to moderate leaders a horizon that they can show to their people that indeed there is a two-state solution that is possible, we will lose the window for a two-state solution," Rice told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Laying out her rationale for the current push, she said that although "There are probably easier foreign policy tasks to take on than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," doing so is a matter of timing. "The timing comes down to what it is we need to do to give moderate forces in the region a boost and to deal a blow to forces of extremism."

Earlier this week, at the annual conference of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), Vice President Dick Chaney laid out his rationale for the Annapolis conference. His speech was mainly about the war on terrorism and the efforts to secure success in Iraq. It was in that context that Chaney depicted the Annapolis summit as a move "to review the progress towards building Palestinian institutions, to seek innovative ways to support further reform, to provide diplomatic support to the parties, so that we can move forward on the path to a Palestinian state."

The Washington Institute's annual conference, considered by many as a carnival of sorts for Mideast policy wonks, was very much focused on Annapolis. Panelists and corridor-chatters speculated about the chances of success. Overall, as much as there was recognition that the conference could provide a real window of opportunity to push toward final-status Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, there was skepticism that it would. Ambassador Dennis Ross, President Clinton's special Middle East Coordinator, expressed concern at the administration's sluggish preparations for the summit. There is not enough time to prepare a meaningful joint Israeli-Palestinian document, he said, and Rice's trips are not sufficient to lay the ground for a successful meeting. "Shuttle diplomacy means you actually have to shuttle," Ross said, noting that the Secretary rarely goes back and forth between the parties on her visits to the region. He expressed doubts as to whether the administration really knows what it wants the Annapolis summit to produce and whether it has a "strategy for the day after." America's diplomatic product "must seem credible to both publics," he commented. Rice, said Ross, "has created a situation in which the conference is more important to her than it is to the parties." That is a situation America must reverse, he said.

Most of the speakers seemed to agree that done correctly, the Annapolis summit and the diplomatic follow up to the conference could produce a breakthrough toward peace. Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, the former U.S. envoy to Israel and to Egypt, said that the conference could trigger "serious negotiations and political change on both sides." The only question, he said, is whether the Bush administration will do what it takes to make it happen.

Many of the speakers highlighted the lackadaisical attitude of both Israelis and Palestinians to the conference. Polls taken recently among Israelis and Palestinians show that while solid majorities on both sides support a two-state solution, majorities of roughly the same magnitude don't believe that such a solution is feasible in the foreseeable future. Majorities on both sides have low expectations from the Annapolis meeting. A survey conducted among Israelis by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace at Tel Aviv University between October 8 and October 10 demonstrates the dramatic gap between what Israelis think should be done and what they think could be done in the foreseeable future. While 72% said they support the peace process, 68% said they do not believe there will be peace between Israelis and Arabs in the next several years. A fresh poll by the Development Studies Center at Bir Zeit University showed a similar picture, yet slightly more hopeful, on the Palestinian side. Nader Sa'id, who directs the Center, presented the results at the WINEP conference (they are not yet posted on the Center's web site). The survey, conducted in the West Bank and Gaza between October 14 and October 16, shows that while 70% of the Palestinian public supports a two-state solution based on an Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 borders, 44% do not believe that Jews and Arabs could live side by side in two independent states.

Israelis and Palestinians are meanwhile bringing their concerns regarding Annapolis to Washington. Diplomats from both sides have been meeting with State Department officials, with journalists and opinion leaders to in preparation for the upcoming U.S. mediation efforts leading up to Annapolis. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley came to Israel Thursday for a two-day visit and Secretary Rice plans to follow early next month.

Members of Abbas' Negotiations Support Unit (NSU) are in Washington for meetings with administration officials and public briefings. Israel's foreign minister Tzipi Livni formed an NSU of her own, comprised of Foreign Ministry experts and officials from other government ministries and the defense establishment. Heading it is Nimrod Barkan, a veteran diplomat who directs the Research Department at the Ministry.

The Israeli negotiating team, headed by Minister Livni - which Barkan's panel will support, met twice this week with the Palestinian negotiating team headed by Ahmad Qurei. The teams reportedly are still far from reaching a joint declaration on the "core issues" of Jerusalem, refugees and borders. Palestinians are still pushing for a detailed statement, or even a full-fledged agreement, prior to the meeting, accompanied by a timetable for implementation. Earlier this week, veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat threatened that the Palestinians "won't go to the conference unless we reach an agreement with Israel on the final status issues and a clear timetable for the implementation of any agreement between the two parties." Israeli diplomats dismissed Erekat's threat as "posturing." Prime Minister Olmert, on his part, dismissed resignation-threats by hard-line members of his coalition cabinet who are concerned that Jerusalem will be compromised in Annapolis. "I don't see any political difficulty with this. I gather from my meetings with coalition partners that the coalition is cohesive and stable," Olmert told reporters after meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris.

The surprise of this week was the headline-grabbing call made by the newly-appointed Minister-without-portfolio Ami Ayalon for Olmert to invite Hamas to the Annapolis summit. "Such a call by Israel would cause Hamas to crumble because of the internal struggles taking place within the group," Ayalon told Israel Army Radio. There was no senior Israeli official to second his call. In fact, Israeli officials denied claims made by Abbas that Israel has been negotiating with Hamas over partially lifting the closure of Gaza.

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Annapolis Countdown is a weekly publication of Americans for Peace Now, prepared by APN Spokesman Ori Nir. Americans for Peace Now is a Jewish, Zionist organization dedicated to enhancing Israel's security through peace and to supporting the Israeli Peace Now movement. For more information, please contact APN at (202) 728-1893.