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December 24, 2007 - Vol. 9, Issue 16

SEEKING CALM IN GAZA; SETTLEMENT FLIP FLOP; RED CARPET CHECKPOINT; ROCKET DEFENSE GETS A BOOST;

SEEKING CALM IN GAZA: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas' government in Gaza may be in the making. If it comes into being, it will probably not be the product of bilateral negotiations, nor will it be anchored in an official agreement. But according to public statements on both sides, a de-facto truce that both sides will adhere to may emerge soon, following the surge in violence over the past two weeks.

Several senior Hamas officials last week signaled their organization's desire to achieve a ceasefire with Israel. On the Israeli side, several senior officials - including hawks with considerable security credentials - are advocating some engagement with Hamas to bring about a temporary cessation of violence.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his minister of defense Ehud Barak yesterday sketched Israel's position on a ceasefire at the weekly cabinet meeting. Olmert made clear that Israel will not negotiate with Hamas as long as the organization does not recognize Israel, stop violence against it and recognize past Israeli-Palestinian agreements. Barak, however, did not rule out a de-facto truce. "If they stop shooting, we are not opposed to calm," he was quoted by Haaretz as telling the cabinet ministers.

While direct bilateral negotiations are not likely, discussions on the terms of a lull through a third party are reportedly being considered by both sides. The issue is expected to come up in the talks that Barak will hold Wednesday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and senior Egyptian security officials in Sharm el-Sheik, according to Israeli press reports.

The prospect of a ceasefire emerged last week when the prime minister of Hamas' Gaza government, Ismail Haniyah, phoned an Israeli television reporter on Tuesday and raised the possibility of a mutual cessation of hostilities. The call came as Gaza militants intensified their launching of Qassam rockets into Israel and as the Israel Defense Forces intensified operations in the Gaza Strip.

Haniya's proposal, which his spokesman Taher el-Nunu initially confirmed to the media (though later it was said that Haniya was misunderstood), triggered a flurry of reactions by both Israeli politicians and Hamas leaders and dominated the headlines of the Israeli press in recent days. Hamas is apparently offering a short-term calm (tahdiya, in Arabic) which could be expanded into a long-term ceasefire (hudna, in Arabic) subject to terms that Israel and Hamas negotiate.

Three Israeli cabinet ministers - Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, National Infrastructures Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer and Minister without Portfolio Ami Ayalon, all retired generals - spoke publicly in support of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Other political figures vehemently opposed ceasefire negotiations. Yet some senior officials - including President Shimon Peres - staked out a middle ground, suggesting that a ceasefire would be the natural outcome of a halt in rockets attacks from Gaza.

Much was made in the Israeli media of a single report in the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on Saturday, which quoted an unnamed Hamas official as proposing an unconditional ceasefire. "There will be no conditions: A cessation on your side [in exchange] for a cessation on my side," the official reportedly said. Other Hamas officials who spoke about the possibility of a ceasefire either flatly denied the alleged intention to reach a truce or listed a long set of conditions, ranging from an end to Israeli incursions into Gaza to the lifting of Israel's economic siege of the Strip.

Other Hamas spokesmen said that ceasefire negotiations could advance the dilapidated attempts to work out a deal with Israel on the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who has been held in Gaza since June 2006.

According to Israeli press reports, Hamas has recently shown more flexibility in the terms it set for releasing Shalit. Israel, in return, is reportedly considering some flexibility as well. Israeli negotiators who are handling the Shalit affair reportedly asked the government to loosen the definition of Palestinian prisoners "with blood on their hands" in order to allow the release of more Hamas prisoners in exchange for the kidnapped Israeli soldier. A committee of senior cabinet ministers was reportedly recently formed to review the criteria for releasing Palestinian prisoners. The immediate push for the formation of the committee was reportedly a request by Ofer Deckel, Prime Minister Olmert's special negotiator on the kidnapped Israeli soldiers in Gaza and Lebanon. Deckel reportedly told Olmert last week, upon his return from meetings with Egyptian officials in Cairo, that there is a new opening in the negotiations over Shalit. (Haaretz 12/24, 12/23; Ynet, 12/24 & 12/23/07; Israel Television Channel 2, 12/18/07; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, 12/22/07; Ma'an, 12/23/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/23/07; Ma'ariv, 12/23/07)

SETTLEMENT FLIP FLOP: On Monday Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel will only allow construction to continue within already built-up areas in West Bank settlements. The land that lies between existing buildings and the much larger outer jurisdictional boundaries of the settlements would be off limits, Reuters reported.

On Tuesday, the Jerusalem Post reported that tenders for an additional 1700 housing units are in the pipeline for construction at Har Homa, where tenders for 307 units published earlier this month drew international condemnation.

On Wednesday, Housing Minister Zeev Boim said his ministry was looking into building a new Jewish neighborhood with 10,000 apartments at Atarot, near the Qalandia checkpoint on the northern outskirts of Jerusalem's municipal boundary. The announcement followed a meeting with the Israel Lands Administration in which Boim reportedly sought a permit for the construction.

On Thursday, Boim said that he rejected the idea of building the Atarot neighborhood all along. "The subject of a possible exploration [of the plan] was brought before me, but I suggested that we drop it," he told Israel Radio. Boim spokesman Eran Sidis added that "this obviously was ruled out, because of the sensitive nature of the peace talks." Sidis added: "We wouldn't even dream of doing it...We ruled it out categorically."

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice praised Israel for canceling the Atarot construction plan. "I think it's a good step," Rice told AFP. "I think that the Israelis understood that what had happened with Har Homa had had an effect of undermining the confidence in the very fragile and brand new peace process," Rice said on Thursday, adding "I don't know the calculations that went into it, but obviously it's helpful that you don't have that decision to contend with."

On Sunday, Peace Now revealed that the Israeli government budget for 2008 includes an investment of about NIS 100 million ($26 million) to build an additional 500 housing units at Har Homa and 250 units at Maale Adumim. The budget is slated to be approved by the Knesset later this week.

An Israeli Foreign Ministry official expressed frustration about the timing of these plans, telling Ma'ariv that "the publication of the previous tender for 307 housing units made the Americans very angry. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke out sharply against Israel. The first session of negotiations was ruined because of that construction since Abu Ala refused to talk about any subject at all and focused only on their need for a freeze in construction in Har Homa. The timing is all that's important with these things. It really isn't the time to declare construction beyond the Green Line, even if we're talking about areas that, according to the Israeli position, are going to remain under Israeli sovereignty forever."

Peace Now Secretary General Yariv Oppenheimer told Ma'ariv that "this government is two-faced. On the one hand it talks peace and on the other it builds in the settlements. Israel is making the Annapolis process fail. It has disregarded the international commitments it made and is turning the problem of Jerusalem into one that is insoluble. At a time when there isn't money for medicines, the disabled and the students, the government continues to invest a fortune beyond the Green Line. The government is getting Israel into international hot water." (Haaretz, 12/17, 12/19 & 12/20/07; Jerusalem Post, 12/17/07; Ma'ariv, 12/23/07; AFP, 12/23/07)

RED CARPET CHECKPOINT: More than 60,000 Christian tourists are expected to visit Bethlehem this week for Christmas. Israel has made arrangements for these Christian tourists to be able to travel within the West Bank with greater comfort than the Palestinian residents enjoy.

Israel's Tourism Ministry made special plans to accommodate Christian pilgrims who wish to travel to Bethlehem, including opening a situation room to handle problems tourists encounter over the holiday season. The ministry has also arranged for shuttle bus service to the crossing point near Bethlehem today, December 24, and tomorrow, December 25. The buses will leave every half hour from a monastery in Jerusalem, where representatives of the Tourism Ministry will be armed with sweets and brochures in English, Arabic and Hebrew.

More dramatically, Israel's Defense Ministry is setting up an additional route between Jerusalem and Bethlehem that bypasses the checkpoint through which Palestinians travel. The new temporary passage will be open to foreigners only. Palestinians wishing to enter Bethlehem will have to travel via the currently operating checkpoint. The Israeli government forbids its citizens from entering Bethlehem, or any other Palestinian city.

This special route is being opened following a request reportedly made by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The Quartet's Middle East envoy raised the issue during a recent meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Blair reportedly noted that the security checks at the existing checkpoint leading to Bethlehem subjects pilgrims to long lines. However, Blair and Barak may be trying to protect pilgrims from more than just long lines. 25% of Israeli combat soldiers who serve in the West Bank testified that they had either taken part in, had witnessed, or had heard about abusive acts by soldiers at checkpoints, including physical and verbal abuse, bribe-taking, humiliation of travlers, or gratuitous delays. This was the finding of an IDF-commissioned survey of 1000 combat soldiers, which was leaked to Yedioth Ahronoth last week. A high-ranking IDF officer told the paper that the IDF's leadership "knew that there was a problem, but we never imagined it was this grave."

In other news of steps meant to improve the experience of Christian tourists, IDF Lieutenant Colonel Camil Whbee told reporters on Tuesday that restrictions will be lifted to ease the passage of Arab Israelis, Christian tourists, and reporters into Bethlehem with their vehicles during the holiday. Whbee added that "the PA police will be present and in charge of the order inside Bethlehem and at the Church of the Nativity. We hope the cooperation will be efficient."

Indeed, the Palestinian Authority chose to begin deploying PA security officers in and around Bethlehem on Sunday, as forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas continue to gradually take charge of West Bank cities. It was the third such deployment since November by Palestinian police, who have already taken control in the cities of Nablus and Tulkarem. "We are trying to see an Israeli withdrawal from Bethlehem... the presence of the Palestinian security forces aims to maintain the rule of law and this is part of our security plan," explained Prime Minister Salam Fayyad when announcing the deployment. "Our forces in Bethlehem... are here to stay. It is not a temporary campaign," he added.

After taking photos of the new Palestinian police officers, tourists to Bethlehem may want to check out the mural on the wall of The Three Arches souvenir and jewelry shop on the city's main street. The mural was reportedly painted several weeks ago by Banksy, a British graffiti artist. It depicts a life-size Israeli soldier stopping a donkey to check its papers. Store manager Mike Kanawati has mixed feelings about the graffiti. "This painting has two meanings: One, it is making fun of your [the Israeli] army, which spends time checking the papers of animals - and that's all right," he told Haaretz. "The second meaning - which I didn't like - is that we Palestinians are the donkeys." Kanawati said that he wanted to get rid of the graffiti, but then "I understood that he was some famous British artist... and then I said to myself that maybe I could use the graffiti for business. I've already had a tourist approach me and ask me how much I want for the wall itself. He hasn't made me an offer yet but now, after checking some more, I'm actually thinking of cutting the wall off from the building in one piece and selling it to anyone willing to pay for it. I thought to ask for $250,000. What do you say?" Bansky's works have sold for close to $600,000 and his admirers include Angelina Jolie, Jude Law, Christina Aguilera, and David Beckham.

This was Bansky second visit to Bethlehem. The first was in 2005, when he left a series of images painted onto the Israeli-built security barrier. His works have generated a cottage tourist industry in the city, where taxi drivers reportedly offer tourists a tour of all the new paintings Banksy and his colleagues left in the city ending with a visit to a gallery where his works are sold. (Haaretz, 12/13, 12/19, 12/20, & 12/23/07; Jerusalem Post, 12/18 & 12/24/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/17/07)

ROCKET DEFENSE GETS A BOOST: Israel's cabinet on Sunday approved funding for the development of the Iron Dome rocket defense system, which is designed to intercept short- and medium-range rockets. The first operational version of the system could be deployed in Sderot in two and a half years.

The cabinet approved NIS 811 million (about $210 million) to help Rafael, the Israel Armament Development Authority, accelerate the building of the system. "Research and development will be completed during the coming year. We hope that within two and a half years from today, we will be able to see the first systems deployed on the ground near Sderot," said Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Rafael has been waiting for this funding since February, when then-Defense Minister Amir Peretz approved Iron Dome as the system for intercepting short-range rockets, such as Kassam and Katyusha rockets. Project director Oron Uriel said that the "system's development plans has been fast-tracked without precedent. It is revolutionary on a global scale."

Iron Dome comprises a single, relatively cheap rocket developed by Rafael and a radar system developed by Elta, a subsidiary of Israel Military Industries. The radar system identifies the rocket the moment it is launched at Israel and sends a missile toward it, striking and destroying it while still in the air. "This is a complicated technological challenge, since we are talking about intercepting short-range rockets during their extremely short flight toward a target," an expert in the field told Yedioth Ahronoth.

Initial tests using the system will be conducted in four months and its first simulated interception of a dummy target is slated to take place in early 2009. Rafael staff expects the system to be 95-percent accurate against Qassam rockets as well as Fajr missiles used by Hezbollah. "So far, we've successfully intercepted drones, but not rockets and we're working on it," Uriel explained. "The rocket's trajectory is not hard to track, but is problematic because it may explode in midair."

Rafael won the Defense Ministry's tender to supply a rocket interception system after it defeated two Israeli firms, Israel Aircraft Industries and Israel Military Industries, and an American company, Northrop Grumman.

Israel's security establishment is working concurrently to place rapid fire artillery systems within several months to protect strategic installations and military camps from Kassam rockets and mortar shells. About two weeks ago, an Israeli delegation visited the United States to examine a Phalanx type weapons system produced by Raytheon. This system was reportedly successful in protecting military forces in Iraq. The system is composed of a radar that identifies rockets together with artillery that fires 20 millimeter shells at a rate of 3,000 shells a minute.

Israel has refrained from placing such batteries near Sderot out of concern that the shells would land in populated areas and cause damage. The system is also not suited to protecting territory as large as a city. However, the system may be effective in protecting strategic installations, such as the power station in Ashkelon and military bases. (Haaretz, 12/23/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/23 & 12/24/07)