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APN Fact-Finding Mission to Israel - 2008 Report

The June 14-20 trip included meetings with top Israeli and Palestinian leaders, as well as visits to key locations

Introduction

Americans for Peace Now (APN) conducted a fact-finding mission to Israel from June 14 to June 20, 2008.

 

Several themes dominated our meetings with Israeli, Palestinian and American officials, pundits and activists.

 

This report will explore these themes and will review some of the meetings we held. We also added to this report the daily dispatches that we sent from Israel during our mission, which were posted in real time on our web site.

 

We came to Israel at a time of a heated political debate. The main issues on the political agenda were:

  • The future of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government and the instability of the Israeli political system;
  • Prospects for success of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which kicked in during our visit, and, more broadly, future relations between Hamas and Israel and between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority;
  • Prospects for significant developments in Israel's final status negotiations with the Palestinian Authority before the end of this year and going into the next U.S. administration;
  • Prospects for a more robust U.S. peacemaking role during the remainder of President Bush's term and under the next administration;
  • Prospects for a breakthrough in Israel's negotiations with Syria;
  • The ongoing crisis in Palestinian politics;
  • Efforts to improve the economic and security situation in the West Bank;
  • The way in which Iran's nuclear quest impacts Israel's regional diplomatic efforts.

 

In addition to the meetings we had with politicians, experts, pundits and activists, we traveled to the southern Israeli town of Sderot and visited neighboring communities that have been suffering from daily barrages of rockets and mortar fire from the Gaza Strip. We took a trip to East Jerusalem and viewed the intense construction in settlements near Jerusalem such as Har Homa and the E-1 corridor between Jerusalem and the West Bank settlement of Ma'ale Adumim. We also traveled to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian officials.

 

Speakers

 

Following is a list of people with whom we met:

 

Israeli politicians and government officials:

  • Vice Prime Minister Haim Ramon (Kadima)
  • Knesset Member Colette Avital (Labor)
  • Knesset Member Yossi Beilin (Meretz)
  • Knesset Member Haim ("Jummes") Oron (Meretz)
  • Chairman of the Knesset Education Committee, MK Rabbi Michael Melchior (Labor)
  • Mark Regev, communications advisor to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert

 

Israeli non-governmental commentators: 

  • Yossi Alpher, former director of Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center, Former senior Mossad official, founder and co-editor of Bitterlemons.com
  • Alon Liel, Chairman of the Israel-Syria Peace Society and former director general of Israel's Foreign Ministry
  • Pollster Tamar Harmann, the Open University and the Israel Democracy Institute
  • Journalist Danny Rubinstein, formerly Haaretz's Palestinian affairs columnist and currently a columnist with Kalkalist, Yedioth Ahronoth's economic magazine
  • Naomi Chazan, former Knesset Member, former Knesset Deputy Speaker and a professor of political studies at Jerusalem's Hebrew University
  • Cartographer Dan Rothem, formerly with the Washington-based Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation
  • Noa Galili, Project Manager on Construction in East Jerusalem at the Geneva Initiative
  • Journalist Attila Somfalvi of Ynet
  • Shalom ("Shuli") Dichter, co-director of Sikkui, the Association for the Advancement of Civic Equality in Israel
  • Zohar Avitan, director of the preparatory program at Sapir College in Sderot, a local activist and local radio talk show host
  • Ahlama Peretz, local political activist and candidate for the mayor of Sderot
  • Arnon Avni, member of Kibbutz Nirim in the Negev and a local political activist
  • Col. (ret.) Ron Shatzberg, project director at the Economic Cooperation Foundation

 

U.S. officials:

  • Jacob Walles, U.S. Consul General and Chief of Mission in Jerusalem
  • Robert Danin, Head of Tony Blair's Quartet Mission to the West Bank, formerly Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs

 

Palestinian officials, experts and activists:

  • Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad
  • Mustapha Abu-Swai, Director, Islamic Research Center, Al-Quds University
  • Pollster Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
  • Fatah activist Sufian Abu-Zaida, former PA minister for prisoners' affairs
  • Ghassan Khatib, former Palestinian cabinet member and vice president of Bir Zeit University
  • Palestinian Legislative Council and senior Fatah activist, Kaddura Fares

 

Peace Now staff and activist:

  • Peace Now Secretary General Yariv Oppenheimer
  • Hagit Ofran, director of Peace Now's Settlement Watch
  • Lee Wilson, Peace Now's director of international relations
  • Janet Aviad, Peace Now lay leader
  • Galia Golan, Peace Now lay leader
  • Tzali Reshef , Peace Now lay leader
  • Mossi Raz, Peace Now lay leader

 

Main Themes in Peace Now's 2008 Fact Finding Mission to Israel

 

The Gap between the ongoing diplomatic activity and the situation on the ground, in the West Bank and Gaza.

 

A recurring theme in conversations with our speakers was the gap between the flurry of diplomatic activity between Israelis and Palestinians and the deteriorating conditions in the West Bank, which make the implementation of an Israeli-Palestinian political agreement ever more difficult.

 

At the time of our visit, Israel's prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister were all engaged in intense negotiations with the Palestinian Authority over a future permanent settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and over interim security arrangements. In addition, Israel had just concluded indirect negotiations with Hamas' leadership in Gaza over the terms of a ceasefire agreement. Negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a prisoner exchange deal were also intensifying, according to Israeli press reports.

 

We heard from some Israeli government officials that the political negotiations with the Palestinian Authority were serious and sincere, with the objective of reaching a "joint document" before the end of 2008. The intention, we were told, was to reach a document that would be detailed and substantive, more than a mere declaration of principles. Some of our Israeli interlocutors emphasized the "mantra" that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been repeating in recent months: that nothing will be agreed as long as everything has not been agreed. In other words, the key to achieving a comprehensive agreement between the parties was the parties' ability to make reciprocal concessions on various final status issues, such as Israeli concessions on Jerusalem in exchange for Palestinian concessions on the refugee problem. One senior Israeli official told us that the negotiations did in fact reach the advanced stage of considering reciprocal concessions.

 

Not all of our speakers shared the impression that negotiations were at an advanced stage. Vice Premier Haim Ramon (Kadima) expressed a different view. Livni and her interlocutor, Chief Palestinian negotiator Ahmad Qurei (abu-Alaa), are not making much progress in their negotiations, Ramon said. His assessment was that a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement was not a viable possibility in the coming months and that therefore the most Israel and the PA can achieve is a broad declaration of principles. It should be noted that Ramon made these observations to bolster his argument that Israel ought to militarily destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip rather than negotiate with it toward a ceasefire.

 

While Livni is negotiating with Qurei and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is negotiating with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on the final settlement agreement, Defense Minister Ehud Barak has been coordinating with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad over security arrangements in the West Bank and issues of access and movement. On those issues - freezing settlement activity, removing illegal outposts or removing West Bank checkpoints and roadblocks - progress has been minimal, we were told by several speakers who closely follow the parties' fulfillment of their Roadmap obligations.

The gap between the intense diplomatic activity and the lack of real positive change on the ground is further exacerbating the already existing cynicism and mistrust in the political process among Palestinians. Another reason for mistrust in the process is the impression, among Palestinians, that they have no partner on the other side. Some of our Palestinian speakers pointed out, ironically, that whereas it used to be Israel complaining that it did not have a partner for peace on the Palestinian side (during the Yasser Arafat era), now Palestinians are complaining that they don't have an Israeli partner. Prime Minister Olmert and his cabinet are so weak that they cannot make bold decisions toward peace and cannot implement agreements with the Palestinians that require painful concessions, we were told by Palestinians.

 

The contradiction between dynamic diplomacy and political paralysis: negotiations on two fronts vs. the apparent inability of the Olmert government to bring these negotiations to conclusion.

 

Many of our speakers expressed deep frustration with what they depicted as the chronically dysfunctional Israeli political system. Because of the instability of ruling coalitions, Israeli prime ministers were not able to bring diplomatic processes to fruition, many of our speakers said. "The major problem of the state of Israel is political instability," Vice premier Ramon told us, echoing statements we heard from other Israeli politicians. "The average term of a government is about a year and a half. You cannot conduct serious policy under such circumstances," he said.

 

Prime Minister Olmert's problem is even more acute than political instability problems that his predecessors suffered. Olmert is negotiating both with Syria's President Bashar Assad - albeit indirectly - and with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, but hardly anyone in Israel expects Olmert to bring these negotiations to conclusion. Because of his fragmented coalition, his low public approval rating and his shaky legal status, Olmert is perceived as having neither the political muscle nor the moral authority to conclude either negotiating track and Implement any agreements. "Despite the fact that Olmert is serious in his peace efforts, people do not believe him and the Knesset will not stand behind him," said MK Collette Avital of Labor.

 

Israeli construction in the West Bank is potentially impeding the viability of a two-state solution.

 

We had a chance to witness up close continued Israeli construction in East Jerusalem and in West Bank settlements, and to listen to details about the construction and its impact from experts.

Peace Now data show that settlement activity has increased rather than dropped since Israel recommitted to a settlement freeze at the November 2007 Annapolis Conference.

 

Many of our speakers observed that the increased construction is eroding the potential for a two-state solution on the ground. "We are really running out of time" to reach a viable settlement for the West Bank, said MK Avital. Journalist Danni Rubinstein, an expert on Palestinian affairs, said that the settlement activity is "further complicating a very difficult situation" for Palestinian President Abbas. His Palestinian Authority and Fatah movement are suffering from an ongoing credibility crisis, he said. Abbas' inability to use his negotiations with Israel to curb the increased Israeli settlement drive is further eroding Abbas' legitimacy, Rubinstein said. He added that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is finally realizing how devastating Israeli settlement activity is to Abbas' credibility. In the eyes of the Palestinians, he noted, there is nothing that the U.S. is effectively doing to block Israel's settlement activity. Rubinstein, who has been covering the West Bank since 1967, said that the settlers' grip on power in the West Bank is making it almost impossible.

 

We heard facts and assessments that corroborated these observations from U.S. officials in Jerusalem.

 

We raised these concerns in conversations with Israeli officials. The reply was that new construction (new tenders approved by the government) is taking place only in East Jerusalem, which was annexed to Israel, and in settlement blocs adjacent to the Green Line, which Israel intends to annex in the future. Israeli officials are well aware that according to the U.S. interpretation, this type of construction violates Israel's commitment to freeze settlement activity. Peace Now experts on West Bank settlements pointed out to us that construction is going on not only in settlement blocs but in settlements East of the Green Line, as well.  

 

Israeli roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank are hindering efforts to energize the West Bank's economy; They are therefore weakening Abbas and his government and undermining the Palestinian Authority's efforts to turn the West Bank into a success story that could be contrasted with the economic crisis in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

 

Israeli experts and U.S. officials concurred that in principle, Israeli roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank do serve an important security function. Many agreed, however, that there is no security need for such a large number of roadblocks (there are more than 600 physical obstacles of various types on West Bank roads). Some observed that many of the roadblocks continue to exist as a result of "bureaucratic inertia," as one of our interlocutors put it, and suggested a "sunset provision," which would require that the Israeli security authorities re-examine the necessity of roadblocks from time to time.

Particularly interesting in this regard was a briefing by Ron Shatzberg of the Economic Cooperation Foundation, a Tel Aviv-based think tank. Shatzberg, a retired IDF officer, ran roadblock networks in several regions of the West Bank. Using a powerful computerized presentation, he laid out the logic of the large network of roadblocks but showed how the IDF could reform the West Bank roadblock system in order to provide optimal security for Israelis - both those living inside Israel and those living in West Bank settlements - and a reasonable level of access and mobility for Palestinians.

 

U.S. envoys, as well as other international envoys to Israel, are urging the Israeli government to show more flexibility and allow further access and mobility to Palestinians in the West Bank.

 

The Quartet's mission in Jerusalem, we were told, has been working hard with Israel's ministry of Defense to allow mobility for Palestinians in the West Bank in order to revitalize the local economy. International envoys are working with Israeli authorities on a roadblock-by-roadblock basis, trying to weigh the security value of each one against the economic benefit of lifting it. Progress is slow, but Israel has lifted several roadblocks and has streamlined the movement in several checkpoints, we were told. Another success scored by the Quartet's team is an Israeli agreement to freeze all the military orders to demolish Palestinian homes built without a license. The Quartet's mission is also working to increase the number of permits for West Bank Palestinians to work in Israel (there are approximately 5,000 such permits).

 

The Palestinian Authority has been working, with considerable success, to fulfill its commitments in the fields of security, law-enforcement and financial transparency. These efforts are attracting entrepreneurs and may encourage Israel to be more forthcoming in allowing Palestinian mobility and access.

 

Both in meetings with Palestinians in Ramallah and in meetings with

Israeli and foreign officials, we heard encouraging accounts of Palestinian Authority efforts to fulfill its Roadmap requirements and to put the West Bank on the road to recovery.

 

In the West Bank towns of Nablus and Jenin, Palestinian police officers have been successfully deployed to fight crime, enforce law and order and disarm unauthorized gunmen. In addition, the PA forces are arresting militants, including rogue elements affiliated with Fatah, and coordinating their activities with Israel. America's security envoys to the West Bank are working with the Palestinian forces, in coordination with Israel, and are satisfied with the progress they see.

 

In Ramallah, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad told our delegation that the PA understands full well the importance of reducing violence in the West Bank so that Israel has no pretext to restrict Palestinian mobility in the West Bank. He said that the Palestinians have asked Israel to reexamine the necessity of roadblocks and checkpoints - particularly in areas adjacent to those in which PA forces have been deployed. Fayyad talked about residential construction projects that the PA initiated and about the efforts to build a new Palestinian town north of Ramallah - the first new Palestinian community to be established in the West Bank since 1967.

 

In addition to that large project, Fayyad said, there are more than 600 smaller development projects that the PA initiated throughout the West Bank, of them some 100 have already been completed.

 

The current Palestinian political crisis may become further complicated in coming months.

 

Attempts to advance power-sharing talks between Fatah and Hamas are stalled, we were told in Ramallah. The current rift between the Fatah-controlled West Bank and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip is far from resolution.

 

In addition, Fatah is on the verge of an internal crisis. Attempts to reform Fatah and to reinvigorate its ranks are not bearing fruit. In fact, the institutions of Fatah and the PLO "are rotting," in the words of Ghassan Khatib, the vice president of Bir Zeit University.

 

One problem is the Palestinian presidential elections. Fatah and Hamas cannot agree on a date for the elections, but according to the most common interpretation of the Palestinian law, presidential elections should take place in January 2009. President Mahmoud Abbas may not run for reelection (Abbas said several times in the past year that he is not interested in another term as president). A likely successor is Marwan Bargouthi, who is serving five cumulative life sentences in an Israeli prison. If Bargouthi is not released in time for him to campaign and run for office, the Palestinian political system may be pushed into a state of chaos. If Fatah tries to defer the elections, cautioned Khatib, the legitimacy of the office of the president will be questioned and the President's power will be further eroded.

 

Another problem has to do with the legitimacy of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), the entity with which Israel signed the political agreements that stipulate Israeli-Palestinian relations in the West Bank. The Executive Committee of the PLO, elections for which have not been held in many years, is in risk of losing its quorum due to the death of several of its members.

 

Yet another problem is the inability of Fatah to reform its institutions and cadres in the West Bank and Gaza. This impasse has a devastating impact on Fatah's strategic planning ability. 

 

Khatib depicted the current situation as "an impending crisis of legitimacy and strategy" for Fatah.

 

Despite its weakness, Fatah's approval rating has recently increased, said pollster Khalil Shikaki. He predicted, however, that Fatah's foe, Hamas, will soon gain popular support as a result of its ability to successfully negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Israel in Gaza.

 

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas: an opportunity for Israel to reevaluate its policy toward Gaza and Hamas' government there.

 

Because the Israel-Hamas ceasefire was leading the news at the time of our visit many of our speakers talked not only about the virtues of the truce itself but about the overall Israel-Hamas relationship.

 

Most of our speakers supported the ceasefire. A prominent opponent was Vice Premier Haim Ramon, who cautioned that the ceasefire agreement will embolden Islamic militants throughout the region and advocated using overwhelming force to defeat Hamas in Gaza.

 

Some of our speakers used the ceasefire agreement to reflect on Israel's strategy toward Hamas. Most comprehensive was Yossi Alpher's analysis. Alpher said that Israel's government accepted the Egyptian-brokered agreement because it became clear to the cabinet that surgical military strikes were ineffective in stopping the barrage of incoming rockets from Gaza and that a large scale military operation may cost the lives of 200 to 300 Israeli soldiers. In addition, Alpher said, a ceasefire was politically an easier and safer route to follow than a military option.

 

Alpher argued that the ceasefire agreement demonstrated the utter failure of Israel's strategy of bringing Hamas to its knees through a combination of military pressure and an economic blockade. Not only did the blockade fail, he said, but now Hamas is politically stronger than ever and is capable of arguing that it forced Israel to lift the blockade. "For 41 years, Israeli governments have been using economic carrots and sticks to impact Palestinian politics, and they failed," said Alpher.

 

The ceasefire is not contributing to international efforts to strengthen President Abbas, Alpher said, but an all-out Israeli war against Hamas would have not done more to strengthen the Palestinian president.

 

The best result of the ceasefire would be for Abbas to reach an agreement with Hamas over the formation of a government of technocrats, acceptable to both parties, which would also be acceptable to the international community and to Israel. Such a government may solve the problem of the exclusion of the Gaza Strip from short term negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Such a government can also serve as a bridge to new elections, in which Palestinian moderates would prevail.

 

Current diplomacy between Israel and Syria indicates that President Bashar Assad's intentions are serious and that Israel and Syria have a common interest in pushing forward with negotiations.

 

Many of our speakers spoke about the Israeli-Syrian negotiations as a promising diplomatic endeavor. One Israeli official told us that Israel's main motivation for negotiating with Syria was the hope that Syria would abandon its alliance with Iran and align itself with the West. One Israeli official said that Israel was hoping for Syria to "flip" the way Libya did, "to reorient itself." Israel's government views the Syrian regime as responsible, mature, very much in control of the domestic Syrian arena and capable of delivering once a political agreement is reached.

 

Alon Liel, the former senior diplomat who now advocates for Israeli-Syrian peace, said that Syria is willing to go through such a reorientation, but is not willing to make this concession to Israel. Syria, he said, makes a distinction between it's bilateral agenda vis-...-vis Israel and its regional agenda. While it is willing to make concessions to Israel in the context of bilateral Israeli-Syrian relations (i.e., normalization, border arrangements etc.), regional concessions such as breaking its alliance with Iran are ones that Syria will only make to the United States. Therefore, Liel said - as did many of our speakers - peace negotiations with Syria will hit a brick wall unless the U.S. becomes an active participant in the diplomatic process.

 

In fact, several of our speakers pointed out that for the incoming U.S. administration, an Israeli-Syrian peace accord would be easiest to achieve and easiest to integrate into America's overall goals in the region.

 

We also heard from several speakers - including Israeli officials, politicians and strategic experts - an assessment that a Syrian realignment is not only an Israeli and American interest but is also a Syrian interest. Syria is eager to turn its back at Iran, we were told, and realign itself with the West. This interest, which Israel, Syria and the United States share, could very well propel Israeli-Syrian peace talks toward conclusion once there is a new occupant in the White House.

 

The peace camp faces challenges during 2008, the transitional period preceding the change in leadership in the U.S. and most probably in Israel as well.

 

Many of our speakers spoke about the Israeli left's dilemma: whether to support an Israeli prime minister who is committed to pushing for peace but is highly unpopular because he is perceived as corrupt, or to push to oust Olmert and probably face early elections. We heard various arguments in support of either option.

 

At our closing discussion with Peace Now's leadership, there seemed to have been an agreement that the peace camp's toughest challenge now is to get Israelis to care about the current opportunities to negotiate peace accords with the Palestinians and with Syria. Several Peace Now leaders said that the emphasis in the next six months has to be on the opportunity to seriously negotiate peace with Syria. Doing so makes sense both because Israeli and Syrian leaders clearly want to engage and because it could neatly fit into the American electoral foreign policy debate, underscoring the Bush administration's disengaged approach and emphasizing the need for an intensive U.S. involvement in Mideast peace making.

 

During our visit, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in Israel and the West Bank on yet another peace processing trip. Other than causing us some scheduling problems and causing traffic jams in Jerusalem, Rice's visit was hardly felt. Israel's media, for the most part, ignored it.

 

Appendix: Daily dispatches sent from Israel during APN's fact finding mission.

APN in Israel: Daily Dispatch - June 16, 2008

By Ori Nir, APN Spokesman

APN's annual fact finding mission to Israel is taking Board members and supporters this week to the Knesset and to Sderot, to Ramalah and to the settlements around Jerusalem, to meetings with strategists, politicians diplomats and journalists in Tel Aviv, West Jerusalem and East Jerusalem.

I am writing this dispatch, the first in our week-long visit, in a bus on the way to Sderot and the kibbutzim bordering the Gaza strip. The area has been relatively quiet in the past three days, apparently as a prelude to an informal ceasefire arrangement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Egypt.

Participants started their series of meetings and field trips Saturday night, just as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Israel on yet another attempt to push the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Just before landing at Ben Gurion Airport, Rice told reporters on her plane that Israel's continued settlement activity in the West Bank was "unhelpful" and "a problem." Our tour in and around settlements in the vicinity of Jerusalem hours later illustrated the Secretary's diplomatic observation. We witnessed a frenzy of construction in the settlement of Har Homa and observed the E-1 corridor in the valley between Jerusalem's Mount Scopus and the settlement of Ma'ale Adomim. Israeli, Palestinian and American experts agree that construction in E-1 could undermine the feasibility of a two-state solution by slicing the West Bank and denying the future Palestinian state contiguity and viability. Last month, the headquarters of Israel's Judea and Samaria Police station was transferred from East Jerusalem to a vast office building constructed in the E-1 corridor.

Our first meetings Saturday night and Sunday underlined the tremendous gap between the lofty objective of Israeli, Palestinian and American leaders to reach an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord before the end of 2008 and the circumstances on the ground. President Bush on Saturday, speaking to reporters in Paris, said that he still thinks there is a chance to achieve that goal before he leaves the White House. But violence and mistrust, settlements and outposts, roadblocks and checkpoints, combined with an Israeli leadership crisis, Palestinian political fragmentation and a public disengagement from the political process are making any real progress toward peace improbable, we were repeatedly told.

On Monday MK Colette Avital (Labor) and Journalist Atila Shumfelvi (Ynet) explained why it would be almost impossible to keep together the ruling coalition beyond the beginning of next year. And even if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does succeed to last through the coming months, he is perceived by the Israeli public as not having the mandate to make fateful decisions on matters of peace or war. This perception - combined with Olmert's coalition partners threats to break the coalition and the succession battle within his party, Kadima - is deeming his government dysfunctional, we were told. Israel's large circulation dailies on Sunday featured stories saying that because of all these factors, the cabinet is incapable of making decisions.  

On the bright side, the Israeli media are reporting that a swap to exchange the Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah for Lebanese prisoners may be imminent and that Israel and Hamas are again negotiating; through Egypt, a possible ceasefire.

Today, Monday we will learn more about the apparent inception of the ceasefire when we visit the southern town of Sderot and other Israeli communities bordering Gaza.

APN in Israel: Daily Dispatch - June 17, 2008


By Ori Nir, APN Spokesman

Monday was a beautiful quiet day in Sderot and in the surrounding kibbutzim. The blue sky was clear of rockets and mortar shells as Israel and Hamas, with the help of Egypt, seem to be approaching a ceasefire agreement.

Israeli security officials, who do not like to be perceived as negotiating with terrorists, are not using the term 'ceasefire.' They prefer 'arrangement,' Yeditoh Ahronoth's Alex Fishman reported. De-facto, even before the official 'arrangement' has kicked in, there is quiet. And in Sderot, a town that has learned to live with the daily terror of incoming projectiles from Gaza, that means a rare glimpse into what normal life could look like. "We have passed the peak, now it can only get better," we were told by Ahlama Peretz, a long-time educator, the wife of Israel's former minister of defense, Amir Peretz. She is running as an independent to be the mayor of Sderot, and she is running on a socio-economic ticket, she said. Education, employment, jobs - these are the issues on which all the candidates are focusing. Security? That's an issue too, she said, but it is bound to be resolved. What is most important for the residents of Sderot, she said, is empowerment and resolve.

People in this development town have a great deal of resolve and a good measure of pragmatic common sense. Although many would like to see a large scale Israeli military operation to defeat Hamas and its rocket launchers, most also realize that such a strike would not bring an end to terrorism. Just like a ceasefire agreement, a military campaign can only provide temporary results. "The solution, at the end of the day will have to be political. We must know that the Palestinians' motivation to launch rockets has been addressed," said Zohar Avitan, a local radio and television talk-show host, who works with Ahlama Peretz at Sdrot's Sapir College.

Many in the region feel abandoned by the government. Not enough has been done to protect them, they say. And what they see as government ineptness does not make them optimistic about the government's ability to reach a lasting negotiated political settlement that will promise security and stability. "The real struggle today is not to lose hope, to give some hope for the communities surrounding Gaza but also to the Palestinians in Gaza," said Avitan. "Both peoples are the victims of their leaderships," he said.

Members of Americans for Peace Now's fact finding mission to Israel have been hearing a lot about leadership - or the lack thereof - on the first two days of their trip. In Kibbutz Nirim, which recently lost one of its members in a barrage of mortar shells from Gaza, they met with Arnon Avni, a local graphic designer and a long-time Peace Now activist. Past Israeli leaders made terrible mistakes in turning the Gaza Strip into a cramped, hopeless prison, where people have no hopes and no dreams. "Our hands are not clean," he said. He and other members of his kibbutz obviously resent being the ones paying the price in this low-intensity war of attrition, he said. They are tough enough to wait for a political solution, he said - "Israelis have fought worse wars in the past" - but such a solution calls for a bold leadership.

Back in Jerusalem, Knesset Member Yossi Beilin put the leadership crisis in a political context. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, serious and sincere as he may be about pushing for peace with the Palestinians and with Syria, does not enjoy the political credibility to move, he said. Despite the fact that negotiations on both tracks are reportedly serious and despite encouraging statements from Israeli, Palestinian and Syrian leaders, President Bush's goal of an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord by the end of 2008 seems fantastical and an Israeli-Syrian accord seems distant because of the weak leaders in Washington, Jerusalem and Ramallah.

A modicum of hope for improvement stemmed from the comments of Danny Rubinstein, the veteran Palestinian affairs correspondent, who now writes for Yedioth Ahronoth's economic newspaper, Kalkalist. Despite the roadblocks, the Israeli settlement activity and the Palestinian political crisis, the West Bank's economy has improved somewhat in recent months, Rubinstein said. Given the weakness of the Palestinian political system, "the only viable way to confront Hamas at the moment is to improve the situation in the West Bank," he said, by encouraging the economy, lifting travel restrictions, stopping settlement activity and beginning to roll back the settlement enterprise.

On Tuesday, June 17, members of APN's group will meet with U.S. diplomats and with Israeli Knesset members.

APN in Israel - Daily Dispatch: June 18


By Ori Nir, APN Spokesman

Our meetings in Jerusalem Tuesday, June 17, underscored the tremendous potential for progress toward calm, stability and even peace in Israel's relations with its adversaries.

As the Israeli news media reported that the government was on the verge of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza and on the verge of a prisoner swap with Lebanon's Hezbollah, members of APN's fact finding mission to Israel received encouraging accounts on incremental progress in peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and with Syria.

Details of those accounts were presented by Israeli and American officials in off-the-record briefings and therefore cannot be shared. We learned that negotiations toward a final-status agreement between Israeli and Palestinian officials are intense. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is meeting every other week with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is meeting as frequently as twice a week with chief Palestinian negotiator Ahmad Qurei. Israeli and Palestinian working groups are negotiating technical issues such as water and future security arrangements on an ongoing basis, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak is communicating with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad over short term security issues. In addition, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in Israel that pushing for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal is on the top of her agenda. Several of our interlocutors reported significant progress.

In addition, with the conclusion of the second negotiating round between Israeli and Syrian officials in Turkey, we were told that both sides are positively considering upgrading the talks from their current indirect nature to full-fledged direct talks. In addition, both Prime Minister Olmert and Syrian President Bashar Assad are considering a public meeting in Paris next month.

Despite the encouraging news, none of our interlocutors had illusions about the enormous challenges hindering real progress: Israeli and Palestinian leadership crises, an Israeli failure to deliver on its Roadmap commitments and utter mistrust on both sides in the political process are hindering real progress, we were told.

Meetings with Knesset members at Israel's parliament underscored the political stalemate caused by the uncertainty regarding the future of Olmert's coalition.

Our long day of marathon meetings with politicians, diplomats and policy experts ended with a sobering briefing by political scientist and pollster Tamar Hermann. Israelis are cynical and dismissive about the political process. They view all politics - including the current peacemaking efforts - as incredible ploys by corrupt politicians. In addition, Hermann said, the public is generally content when it comes to the economy and its quality of life and dose not attribute personal benefit to any breakthrough in Israel's relations with its neighboring adversaries. In political science, this phenomenon is known as the combination of a strong society and a weak state. When such situations occur, she said, the status-quo typically seems more favorable to the public.

On Wednesday June 18 we will meet with Palestinian politicians and policy experts in East Jerusalem and Ramallah.

APN in Israel - Daily Dispatch: June 19, 2008


By Ori Nir, APN Spokesman

On a long day of meetings with Palestinian politicians and experts on Palestinian politics, members of Americans for Peace Now's fact-finding mission to Israel had a chance to review a broad spectrum of Palestinian perspectives.

The most instructive - and hope-inspiring one - was that of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who cleared almost an hour and a half of his time for a detailed briefing to the APN delegation. At his Ramallah office, Fayyad talked about the Palestinian Authority's achievements in the fields of security and economics. Besides the deployment of troops in Nablus and Jenin to fight terrorism and crime, the PA is partnering with private sector entrepreneurs to build tens of thousands of housing units in the West Bank. In addition, it has launched some 700 small projects, of which about 100 have already been completed, he said.

Fayyad said that the PA understands full-well that real economic development can only be the result of improved movement and access for Palestinians in the West Bank. Such freedom of movement, he said, can only take place if security and stability are provided, which is why the PA has a strong interest in intensifying its counter-terrorism efforts. Israel, for its part, should recognize that removing checkpoints in the West Bank will give the PA further incentive to fight terrorism, Fayyad said. In his meetings and telephone conversations with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Fayyad has said that his PA needs an Israeli commitment to constantly review the security need of each and every checkpoint. Israel and the PA, he said, both recognize that Israel has a strong interest in improving the Palestinian economy and that the PA has a strong interest in Israeli security.

Some additional encouraging news came from polling data presented by leading Palestinian pollster Dr. Khalil Shikaki. He pointed out that in recent weeks, there has been a significant increase in popular support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and a decrease in support for Hamas and its leaders. Shikaki predicted, however, a moderate increase of support for Hamas in the coming weeks because of the ceasefire agreement that Hamas successfully achieved with Israel.

Palestinian politics are about legitimacy, noted Ghassan Khatib, the former minister in the Palestinian Cabinet and currently the vice president of Bir Zeit University in the West Bank. He cautioned that the legitimacy of several key Palestinian institutions is eroding. If elections for the post of President of the Palestinian Authority do not take place early next year, as scheduled, the presidency and the office of the President will lose much of its legitimacy, he said. In addition, the standing of the PLO and of the Fatah movement is eroding, because the two are not convening their institutions of governance.

This gradually intensifying crisis of legitimacy and the lack of a "leadership spine" in Israel and in the West Bank are resulting in the gradual closing of the window of opportunity to achieve a two-state solution, said leading Fatah activist Kadura Fares. Similar assessments were expressed by several of our Palestinian and Israeli speakers this week.

On Thursday, we will travel to Tel Aviv for meetings with Israeli politicians and security experts.

  

APN in Israel - Daily Dispatch: June 20, 2008


By Ori Nir, APN Spokesman

The last day of Americans for Peace Now's annual mission to Israel was the first day of the ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Naturally, the ceasefire dominated Thursday's discussions.

Most of our speakers, like most ministers of the Israeli cabinet and like the majority of the Israeli public, supported the ceasefire agreement.

The ceasefire is controversial. Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon, minister for state policy affairs in the Prime Minister's Office, is one of eight cabinet members who opposed the agreement. Sixteen supported it. Meeting us at his Kadima Party's headquarters in Petah Tikva, Ramon argued that the ceasefire agreement was a gift to Islamists, not only in Gaza but across the region. The conflict in the region today is not between Israel and the Arab world, he said, but between pragmatists and fundamentalist militants. By negotiating with Hamas, albeit indirectly, Israel recognized the organization instead of militarily toppling its regime in Gaza, Ramon argued.

He noted that Defense Minister Ehud Barak led the efforts to achieve the ceasefire agreement but neglected to explain that Barak acted upon recommendations from the Israel Defense Forces' top brass, including Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. According to reports in the Israeli media, the IDF knows that a comprehensive military campaign to topple Hamas in the Gaza Strip will cost the lives of several hundred Israeli soldiers, will require the de-facto re-occupation of the Strip with a long-term IDF presence there, is likely to not achieve its goal of destroying Hamas' infrastructure, and may very well destroy the efforts to advance a peace process with Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority.

Yossi Alpher, one of Israel's leading strategic analysts, laid out for us the full range of considerations and deliberations that led the government to approve the ceasefire agreement. One of the most compelling considerations was the Israeli government's realization that the tight siege on Gaza, which was designed to put popular pressure on Hamas and topple Hamas' regime, has failed.

Alpher said that stabilizing the situation in Gaza must be accompanied by efforts to economically and politically improve the situation in the West Bank. Israel, he said, must find a way to remove roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank. Only that would open the way for improving the economy of the West Bank, said Alpher.

Ron Shatzberg, a retired IDF Lieutenant Colonel who until recently managed security arrangements on West Bank roads as a battalion commander, showed us how superfluous is the broad network of roadblocks and checkpoints east of the Green Line. Most of the 600-odd roadblocks and checkpoints can be lifted, he said. They can be substituted with smarter security arrangements which would provide Israel with a similarly high level of security and finally give the Palestinian economy the oxygen it needs to thrive. Better access and movement would transform the situation on the ground and give peace efforts a tremendous boost, said Shatzberg, who now works for the Economic Cooperation Foundation, a Tel Aviv-based think tank.

APN's mission to Israel ended Friday in a meeting with Peace Now leaders to exchange views and discuss further cooperation.