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Vol. 10, Issue 4 - September 22, 2008

COALITION NOW OR ELECTIONS SOON; THE PROBLEM WITH POLLS; SYRIA WELCOMES LIVNI; ET TU KISSINGER?; FIGHTING WORDS; ROADBLOCK TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY; SETTLERS VS. IDF

COALITION NOW OR ELECTIONS SOON: Wednesday's Kadima party primary set into motion a series of event that will either lead to a new coalition government or to new elections in Israel. On Sunday Prime Minister Ehud Olmert tendered his resignation. He will now continue to serve in that roll until a new premier is approved by the Knesset. After meeting with representatives of Israel's political parties, President Shimon Peres today tapped newly-minted Kadima Chairperson Tzippi Livni to try to form a new coalition government. If Livni is unable to do so within 42 days, Israel will hold snap elections for a new Knesset.

"Politicians and the other party leaders were right to say last night that Livni's election was still a far cry from ensuring her the premiership," writes Nahum Barnea in Thursday's Yedioth Ahronoth. "She is going to have to engage in exhausting negotiations that will oblige her to be more guileful and manipulative than she has ever had to be before. That does not mean that her chances of forming a new coalition government are negligible."

Also in Yedioth Ahronoth, Yaron London writes about the political theater that is unfolding as Livni navigates between a new coalition and the possibility of elections. "In the next number of days we will all watch as the politicians maneuver in an attempt to gain the most out of the various avenues of action that have been made available to them in the aftermath of the Kadima primary," he wrote, adding that "the twists and turns of the campaign will excite the political analysts but will bore the Israelis, just as it does every other day of the week."

Knesset Member Ephraim Sneh (Labor) writes in the Jerusalem Post that Livni faces two challenges: "One - to build a stable government without submitting to the political and financial threats of Shas, and two - to stay on the negotiation path with the Palestinian Authority and lead to an agreement. Negotiations with [Palestinian leader] Ahmed Qurei ([also known as] Abu Ala) were handled by Livni with an abundance of goodwill but with unnecessary inflexibility, even as clich‚d elements were drawn on from before the Camp David Accords. The inflexibility was always conveniently described as 'upholding the security interests of the State of Israel.' However, a skilled negotiator knows when to safeguard his own interests and when and where to find common ground with regards to the other side's interests. It remains to be seen (and hoped) whether Tzipi Livni, as prime minister, would be able to achieve with [Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas what she wasn't able to as foreign minister."

Speaking about his legacy on Sunday, Olmert said that "I believe that the peace processes that Israel led, those that can be discussed and those that can't, will yet appear in a worthy place in the country's annals, and will be credited to those who were partners in the government." (Maariv, 9/22/08; Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/18 & 9/22/08; Jerusalem Post, 9/21/08)

THE PROBLEM WITH POLLS: The three polls released by Israeli television stations minutes before polling booths closed in the contest for the leadership of the Kadima party promised Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni a definitive victory.

Channel One projected that Livni would trounce Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz 47% to 37%. Channel Two predicted 48% to 37% and Channel Ten showed 49% to 37%. The actual margin of victory was much more modest: 43.1% to 42% or 431 votes. Meir Shetrit came in third with 8.5% and Avi Dichter got 6.5%.

Haaretz reported Friday that a number of pollsters believe that many voters lied to the pollsters, telling them that they intended to vote for a different candidate than they actually did. "We will find out where we went wrong but there will be very little to be done even when we do find out," pollster Mano Geva said. "We can't tell the public off. We have no way of dealing with people who interfere with the polls' integrity. It's a shame." Camil Fuchs, who ran the exit poll for Channel Ten said noted the "statistical error was massive, much greater than any incidental margin of error." Channel Two pollster Mina Tzemach told Haaretz that she would likely stop predicting the outcome of primary contests.

Channel One reporter and political commentator Ayala Hasson spoke of the extent of the problem "Polls have become a reality- and opinion-shaping tool that doesn't necessarily reflect reality," she said. "Who knows what effect this has had on actual voting," Hasson wondered. "We all built castles of commentaries based on virtual reality," Hasson added. (Haaretz, 9/18 & 9/19/08; Israel Radio, 9/18/08)

SYRIA WELCOMES LIVNI: The editorial in Saturday's Tishreen, a government-run newspaper in Damascus, warmly welcomed Tzippi Livni's victory in the Kadima party primary. The paper called Livni "the Mossad beauty" and wrote that "if Livni desires peace - she will achieve it."

The article, signed by the newspaper's editor, Issam Dari, wonders what "this bird [a play on Livni's first name, which means bird] is hiding beneath her wings. We do not know yet whether she is a dove of peace or a hawk, who will drag the region into a situation of neither peace nor war, of tension and of instability."

"I recommend to the Mossad's bird," adds Dari. "If you want to atone for your sins and erase terrorism from your resume, run after peace. You know precisely what the price is. You know very well that the code word (like the code that is required for passing messages to the Mossad) of peace is the return of territories to their owners. I see that you are charging forward toward putting together a new government. If you do succeed, charge forward toward peace in order to avoid tension and wars." (Haaretz, 9/21/08; Israel Radio, 9/21/08; Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/21/08)

ET TU KISSINGER? Five former U.S. secretaries of state - Madeleine Albright, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Henry Kissinger, Colin Powell - spoke of their support for American diplomatic engagement with Iran after the upcoming U.S. elections.

Asked how the U.S. should respond to an Iranian declaration that it wanted to make a deal, Kissinger said: "I'm in favor of negotiating with Iran."

Powell spoke of the urgency of engagement, saying that the United States "should start to talk to them and not wait till later. What are we afraid of?" He added economic aid could be a tool for U.S. policy makers, saying, "I had one meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister. I said to him: 'What's the major problem facing Iran today?' He said: 'We have a young population and we have to create jobs' - they have major economic problems, now that's something we can deal with."

Albright voiced her support for talks, saying, "We need to engage with Iran. You have to deal with countries you have a problem with." She also called for a more substantive discussion of Iranian society as part of the American decision-making process. "[Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad is not particularly popular, and we don't understand Iranian society, it's not monolithic," she said.

Christopher commented on the high stakes. "We cannot afford not to have a dialogue, the military options are very poor," he said.

Baker voiced strong criticism of the Bush Administrations refusal to deal with Syria, terming the current situation "ridiculous." He added: "I would advise the [next] president to fully engage with Syria."

The five spoke at an event held at George Washington University and moderated by CNN's Christiane Amanpour. (Haaretz, 9/16/08; JTA, 9/17/08)

FIGHTING WORDS: "If Gaza remains mutinous, the Palestinian Authority will have no choice but to use force against it," the head of Palestinian Authority forces in the West Bank, General Dhiab al-Ali, said in an interview with Haaretz in which he also spoke of the PA's willingness to battle Hamas in order to "reunify the homeland."

Ali also dismissed Hamas' capacity to take control of the West Bank. "Hamas doesn't have the power to pose a real challenge to the PA in the West Bank," he said. He made similar comments in an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth in which he rejected the notion that pro-Fatah militants would not fight, as happened during Hamas' takeover of Gaza. "Before Gaza happened," he said, "they didn't know what was going to happen to them in Gaza. Now they know."

Haaretz's Avi Issacharoff nnotes that no "senior PA official close to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has ever expressed such views to the media, and especially not shortly before a Fatah delegation is set to attend talks in Cairo on a possible detente with Hamas. A similar Hamas delegation is scheduled to talk with Egyptian officials early next month, and Egypt may try to hold a reconciliation summit in Cairo after the holiday of Id al-Fitr."

Ali's comments also come against a backdrop of increased Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation, which was marked by a number of Israeli gestures including discussions of allowing 150 Palestinian soldiers to operate in Hebron, permission for Israeli Arabs to visit enin, and ongoing training for Palestinian security forces in Jordan. Two battalions have completed this new training regimen - which is supervised by American General Keith Dayton - to date. A third left for Jordan on Thursday and a fourth is scheduled to train there in the future.

Yet, Haaretz interviewer Isaacharoff notes that Ali did not "conceal his anger over Israel's responses to his requests for arms and ammunition, or the restrictions on the movement of PA forces in the West Bank." (Haaretz, 9/21/08; Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/19/08; Jerusalem Post, 9/20/08)

FIGHTING WORDS, PART II: Tension between Hamas and Fatah is mounting over what will happen in January, when Hamas says that Mahmoud Abbas' term as president of the PA ends. Abbas has indicated that he interprets the law as providing for the end of his term in January 2010.

Al-Quds al-Arabi Editor Abdel-Beri Atwan writes Tuesday that "President Abbas' choices are highly limited, in addition to being embarrassing. It would be difficult to hold presidential elections before January of next year because there is not enough time to prepare for them."

"It is clear that President Abbas will barricade himself in his seat not only for one year but for years to come, just like almost all the Arab leaders, some of whom have been in power for over 40 years. Why would he be an exception?" he added.

A poll of the Palestinian public conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that Abbas leads Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh 46.6% to 24.8% in a hypothetical race for the presidency. The same poll found that 56.6% of Palestinians believe that suicide bombings harm Palestinian national interests. 89.2% said that European and American financial aid contributes to Palestinian well-being.

The same poll asked Palestinians who they would favor winning the U.S. presidential race. Senator John McCain took the pot, with 33.5% support. Barack Obama scored 27.7% support. (Al-uds al-Arabi, 9/16/08; PCPO, 9/17/08)

ROADBLOCK TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY: A World Bank report published Wednesday found that the Palestinian economy is becoming increasingly dependent on foreign aid in large part because of Israeli-imposed restrictions on trade and movement.

The bank noted that the Palestinians have moved forward with reform and that donors have provided significant amounts of aid since a three-year plan for Palestinian economic recovery was launched in December.

"Aid and reform without access are unlikely to revive the Palestinian economy," the report noted. "As such, international manifestations of support toward a viable Palestinian state and institutions are incomplete insofar as they do not tackle Israeli economic restrictions in parallel." The World Bank report also questioned whether security considerations were behind many of the restrictions. "Overwhelming evidence suggests that the current restrictions correlate to settlement locations and expansion," the report said.

The report found that Palestinian GDP grew by 0.8% this year. However, given a 2.6% population growth, real per capita GDP dropped by 30% since 1999. The bank also took the donors to task for not paying regularly, complicating Palestinian efforts to plan ahead. Donors contributed $1.2 billion so far this year to support the Palestinian operating budget. $650 million more is needed this year.

The Palestinian plan envisioned a drop in aid to $1.3 billion in budget support for 2009, but "with the restrictions restraining growth, it is questionable whether the current level of budget support can be reduced," the report noted. (World Bank,9/16/08; Haaretz, 9/17/08)

SETTLERS VS. IDF: Settlers continued to scuffle with Israeli soldiers last week in the West Bank.

After Israel forces demolished some of the buildings at an unauthorized settlement outpost on Thursday, settlers retaliated at a military stronghold. "Suddenly, a vehicle arrived with eight settlers in it," a solider told Yedioth Ahronoth. "They were told to stop. They got out of the vehicle and started to curse and push us. Suddenly one of the settlers pulled out a knife, pressed it to the neck of the company commander, and said: 'Well, what will you do now, Nazi?' We ran towards the company CO and the settlers took a few steps back and tried to snatch a gun from another soldier. When the company CO took out a cellphone and photographed them, they ran away. Later we saw that they had slashed four tires on our jeep. When we got to the outpost, the reservists told us that the settlers had slashed all the tires on their [civilian] cars. More than ten cars."

"They have to be dealt with, and fast," added the same soldier, who is serving in the reserves. "It is enough that we pay from our own pocket for the gas to come here and guard the settlers against terrorists, and this is the way they repay us." Shortly after the tire-slashing, settlers reportedly caused damage to property and homes in the Palestinian village Asira al-Kibliya, and lightly injured a woman. Elsewhere settlers allegedly torched Palestinian olive groves.

"Once again, the police are learning the hard way that there is a price tag attached to every evacuation of an outpost," a settler activist told Yedioth Ahronoth. "The more the evacuation and demolition activities continue, the higher the price that they will pay." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/19/08)