Israel's
secret service, the Shin Bet, today published its end of year report,
showing that 2009 was one of the quietest years in Israel's
security history.
For the first time in over a decade, there were no suicide
bombings. Only 15 Israelis were killed by Palestinians, most of them soldiers
who took part in Operation Cast Lead in January. Only 234 Israelis were injured
by Palestinians, most of them (185) soldiers during the
The Shin Bet published its report in Hebrew only. A decent story in English on the report was published by Ynet.
The relative quiet on the border with Gaza<, the report says, is due to the deterrent impact of Cast Lead. The quiet in the West Bank is due to IDF action and to counter-terrorism activity of the Palestinian security forces.
This past year was also quiet on the Lebanese border,
following the Second Lebanon War of 2006. Hezbollah is holding its rocket fire
and has not (yet) retaliated for the assassination of the director if its military
wing, Imad Mughniyah, by a car bomb in Damascus<
in February of 2008.
This is good news. A security lull, however temporary, is
good. And military deterrence is a vital component of Israel's
national security. It is important and it works.
But it comes at a price.
A deterrence-induced lull, particularly in the case of
ideological Islamist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, is shaky. It's
unstable and unreliable. The lull serves Hamas and Hezbollah to reinforce,
rebuild and rearm. In the Gaza Strip, it also creates the conditions for more
militant "jihadist" movements to gain power by challenging Hamas' do-nothing
approach.
One of the unintended consequences of military deterrence is
that with each military action, the threshold is pushed up higher. It spirals. In
other words, in order to deter Hezbollah or Hamas in the future, Israel
will probably use even more force than it used in 2006 in Lebanon
or in the winter of 2008-2009 in Gaza<.
And this spiral enhances the price that Israel
is paying in terms of its alarming international isolation. The international
community is becoming less and less tolerant of using disproportionate force
that inflicts large-scale death, injury and damage on innocent civilians. Particularly
when Israel continues to occupy the West Bank, to besiege the Gaza Strip and is
perceived internationally as resisting peace negotiations with the Palestinians
to bring the occupation to an end.
Military deterrence alone is not sustainable. It achieves neither peace nor real security. At best, it achieves a short-lived and shaky peace of mind, and a temporary lull.
Real security can only be achieved by peace accords between Israel
and its neighbors.
Sure, passive deterrence - maintaining a strong military with a decisive qualitative edge - will always be a component of Israel's national security. In the foreseeable future, it will be a vital condition for Israel's survival. But in the long run, Israel could only survive and thrive as a democracy if it achieves peace accords with its Palestinian and Arab neighbors.