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Egypt through Israel's Eyes

Israel-Egypt Flag Pin2.jpgAPN's Ori Nir writes from Jerusalem, where he is preparing for the APN Israel Study Tour

When Israeli government officials follow their prime minister's instruction to refrain from public statements on a certain issue, you know that the situation is serious. This has been the case over the weekends with regards to the developments in Egypt. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu instructed his Cabinet ministers and other senior officials not to comment on the dramatic events unfolding across the border, at Israel's chief regional ally. And official Israel indeed is silent.


 
    It is a very heavy silence, though. It reflects Israel's initial shock, its deep anxiety about future relations with the largest and most powerful Arab state, and its anxiety about potential broader instability in the region. Israeli pundits - dozens of whom have been interviewed on radio stations and television channels since Friday - seem unanimous that any potential outcome of Egypt's popular uprising would be bad for Israel.

    "The revolution in Egypt hones Israel's strategic distress in the Middle East: it is alone, without an ally," writes Yedioth Ahronoth's Itamar Eichner. Commenting in the same newspaper, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt Eli Shaked writes: "The developments from here on are not going to be good for our peace with Egypt and stability in the region." He explains: "The only people in Egypt who are committed to peace are the people in Mubarak's inner circle, and if the next president is not one of them, we are going to be in trouble. Even if the next president is Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt won't be the same Egypt, and our peace won't be the same peace."

    Israel is reportedly concerned not only that its diplomatic and strategic bilateral relations with Egypt might be negatively impacted, but also that the whole might be destabilized. On the bilateral level, Israel's entire relationship with Egypt is threatened, whether tourism (Israeli tourists are returning home and the Foreign Ministry issued a severe travel advisory), trade (all Israeli exports to Egypt are frozen), security, or Egypt's role in relations between Israel and the Palestinians. A Hamas delegation from Gaza that was scheduled to leave Saturday for Damascus, to discuss a possible prisoner exchange with Israel, had to cancel its trip, because Hamas' only way out of Gaza is through Egypt.

    Overall, Israeli pundits are not optimistic about the impact of a possible democratic shift in Cairo on Egypt's relations with Israel. The intentions of the Egyptian students demonstrating in Tahrir Square are good, writes Yedioth's Nahum Barnea, but "the problem is that good intentions in the Middle East often pave the road to Hell." He adds, "Facing the turn of events in Egypt, Israel can do nothing but hope. The hope is that the crisis produces in its wake a stable government that will be faithful to the previous government's foreign policy, including its peaceful relations and ties with Israel and its Western orientation."

    The events in Egypt are sending shockwaves through the Israeli intelligence and strategic analysis community. Traditionally, this community's political analysis focused on the Arab governments, on the regimes. A friend who is intimately familiar with this community told me today that the assessment patterns are certain to change, and that Israeli analysts will surely now pay more attention to public opinion and to popular undercurrents in the Arab world. Suddenly, the friend said, an axiomatic assumption is shattered. Speculations regarding Egypt's political future focused on what President Mubarak will do, not on what the street would compel him to do, he said. If the Egyptian street can bring Mubarak to his knees, what about the street of West Bank, Jordan and Syria?

       Only a few pundits in Israel are talking about policy repercussions for Israel, and, as usual, commentary depends on the pundits' outlook. Hardliners, as expected, point to developments in Egypt as proof that Israel cannot trust Arab regimes and must sharpen its swords and avoid "risky" peace agreements. Doves argue the opposite. Gideon Levy of Haaretz writes that the developments in Tunisia and Egypt show just how important it is for Israel to adopt a diplomatic doctrine that takes into account popular sentiments in the Arab world. To be able to address the Arab public, Levy writes, Israel must end its occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, the prism through which Arabs typically view Israel.

    "The real alliance with Egypt and its sisters could only be based on ending the occupation, as the Egyptian people wishes, and not on (fighting) a common enemy, as is the interest of its regime," Levy writes.