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Egypt through Israel's Eyes, Part II

Israel_Flag_w_APN.jpgAPN's Ori Nir writes from Jerusalem as he prepares for APN's Israel Study Tour:

A week after Egyptians started demonstrating against their president, Israelis seem to come to terms with the imminent end of Hosni Mubarak era, and to realize that Mubarak's demise may not be a calamity for Israel but may be a source of hope for future peace and for healthier Middle Eastern neighborhood.



For the first time since the anti-Mubarak protests erupted, the dominant Israeli narrative that depicted Mubarak's demise as a net loss was challenged by mainstream voices that urged a broader strategic thinking and advised a diplomatic Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough as a worthy tool for securing stability. Ephraim Sneh, a former Labor hawk who was an IDF general and a deputy defense minister, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth that the most important step for Israel to take in the near future is "to defuse the bomb of the Arab-Israeli conflict." Sneh wrote, "If Israel doesn't bring to an end, by agreement, its conflict with the Palestinians, it is doomed to international isolation in a regional situation that calls for international friends."

Israeli television and radio correspondents, reporting freely in Hebrew from amongst the crowd of millions in Cairo, repeatedly emphasize the fact that the crowd is demonstrating against Mubarak, not against Israel or the United States. "We are simply not the story here," said Carmel Lutsati, Channel One's correspondent, reporting Tuesday night from Tahrir Square in Cairo, after interviewing a student who carried a sign written in broken Hebrew. The sign said: "No to Mubarak, No to Suleiman." Asked why the Hebrew, one student said that it is because Mubarak is "one of them," meaning an Israel sympathizer, but another said that it is because "We want peace," with the entire world, including Israel and the United States.

Israeli officials are still publicly silent. Binyamin Netanyahu, at a joint press conference with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Israel wants to see stability in Egypt, wants continued peaceful relations with Egypt and is concerned about the prospects of an Islamist takeover across its southern border. But even Netanyahu did not say anything explicit about wanting to see Mubarak's regime intact. "Our policy is to maintain the peace as far as this depends on us," Netanyahu said in what seemed to be a measured statement, "It is clear that this is a supreme goal," he added.

Other Israeli officials are understandably silent. And Israeli citizens, understandably concerned, are seeking reassurance. In the absence of official reassurance, the media are emphasizing reassuring messages from Egypt, such as a statement by an Egyptian opposition leader that any new Egyptian regime would commit itself to all of Egypt's international treaties, including its peace treaty with Israel.

Israel's political and military establishment is busy assessing the potential damage to Israel in a post-Mubarak era. Most mainstream strategic analysts and pundits focus on the need to change the military doctrine, to bolster military preparations and intelligence efforts, and to reduce reliance on natural gas imported from Egypt. The hardline Israeli right, expectedly, is arguing that peace agreements with Arab states are shaky. Yaakov Amidror, a national-religious former IDF general, published an article in the pro-Netanyahu daily Israel Hayom, headlined: "The Main Lesson: Security is Preferable to Peace."

While the gut reaction that this headline reflects seemed to characterize Israel's initial reaction to events in Egypt, change came yesterday. Oded Granot, the Arab affairs analyst of the government run Channel One TV and said last night that while Israel has reason to worry about the developments, "there are also many reasons for hope, if there will be continuity in Egypt's attitude toward Israel." A new government in Cairo may not turn up the temperature of the "cold peace" with Egypt, he explained, but none of the political power groups there has an interest in breaking or even violating its peace treaty with Israel.

Israelis in coffee shops and in the media have in the past days discussed endlessly, and self-righteously, what it means to be "the only democracy in the Middle East," what it means to be "a villa in the jungle," and whether the jungle could turn democratic. But almost absent from the debate is a serious discussion of what Israel can do to encourage positive change in the Arab world. There is hardly any discussion of how Israeli diplomacy could be leveraged to boost stability and moderation. There is little discussion of the impact of Israel's behavior on Arab public opinion, and of Israel's consistent dismissive attitude toward Arab public opinion.

The dominant narrative on the meaning of Egypt's political earthquake for Israel may be gradually shifting, but there is little evidence of a ripple effect that will prompt a transition toward a proactive peace-seeking diplomacy.

Ori prepared this blog post from Jerusalem, where he is preparing for APN's Israel Study Tour.