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Israelis Skeptical on War with Iran

warIran320x265.jpgJerusalem - On Purim 2012, Israel does not look like a country on the verge of war. Certainly not like a country on the brink of a nuclear holocaust.
 
Tens of thousands were out on Thursday, in perfect weather, to enjoy marches and masquerades, feasts and festivals. At the entrance to the emergency room of Jerusalem's Shaare Tzedek Hospital, a covered lot that is supposed to turn into a mass triage center in case of a non-conventional war, there were groups of children dressed in colorful costumes, preparing to fan out at the large medical center and entertain the patients.
Inside, nurses and administrative staff were going about their daily work with red clown-buttons on their nose, peacock feathers in their hair or butterfly wings on their shoulders.
 
This is not a country bracing for war. This is not a public seeking war.

Three recent polls show that Israelis are more than reluctant about waging war against Iran. Israelis understand the repercussions of a military strike against Iran, particularly a solo-strike by Israel only.
 
A new poll, commissioned and published by Haaretz Friday, shows that 58% of Israelis oppose such a strike by Israel alone, without US participation. The figure is even higher (62%) in the monthly "Peace Index" poll, commissioned jointly by Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. Furthermore, most Israelis (53% of the Jewish public) do not believe that such an attack would succeed (the poll does not define what "success" is).
 
A recent poll by Professor Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland features similar results. That poll shows that only 42% support a military strike against Iran even if Israel secures at least US support. Most of those asked concurred that war with Iran would have a mild impact on Iran's nuclear quest, while it is likely to trigger a barrage of rockets by Lebanon's Hezbollah and a war that would last months if not years.
 
Prime Minister Netanyahu is known as sensitive to polling data. That may be why in interviews to Israel's three national television channels upon his return from Washington, Netanyahu said that US-Israeli relations did not suffer in the past when Israel took unilateral actions, against America's will. He said that if the "right decision: is not taken regarding Iran, there might not be who to explain it to in the future.

Netanyahu talked about an Israeli clock that is not ticking in synch with America's clock on Iran. "The American clock is not Israel's," he said, "ours operates on a different timetable." When asked what that timetable was, he said it is not measured in terms of days or weeks, but also not in terms of years.
 
Netanyahu was wildly applauded by AIPAC's hardline crowd, but in Israel he is facing a much more skeptical public. Although popular - Haaretz's poll shows that his Likud Party would receive a record 37 seats of the Knesset's 120 if elections were held today - the same poll shows that only half of the public trusts Netanyahu and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, to handle the Iran challenge.  
 
Israelis know that it is them - not hardline American Jews - who would have to suffer the consequences of war with Iran. In Thursday's Maariv, columnist Yael Paz-Melamed wrote, "If I were an American Jew, and if I had the privilege of being one of the 14,000 representatives who listened eagerly to the speech that was given by the prime minister of Israel, I would have added two standing ovations with uproarious applause. I might even have let a few tears flow down my cheeks. Why shouldn't I? After all, I'm not the one who is going to have to pay the price for his war-mongering.  At most, I'll be forced to pay a few more dollars to fill my car's gas tank."
 
Paz-Melamed continued, "But I do live here, just like seven million other citizens, and that is why we are going to have to pay for the consequences of this eloquent speech that was delivered in such eloquent English. Maybe that is why the prime minister's audience wasn't the Israelis, but American Jews. Over there he receives the enormous respect, the enthusiasm, the applause that put him in seventh heaven. Over there he can also revisit, time and again, the horrors of the Holocaust and the pride in the might of the Israeli army, without saying even a single word about the terrible price that will be incurred if we do strike Iran. And that price will be incurred, and it will be far more terrible than estimated."

Paz-Melamed stated, "Netanyahu and Barak can plan everything meticulously, except the results. The cost. Regrettably, that part isn't up to them." She concluded, "if we attack, can one say with certainty that the State of Israel will continue to exist and to flourish as it does today? Had Netanyahu delivered his speech to 14,000 Israelis, he would have had to address those questions. Because this is about our lives and our fate. Except that he doesn't have even a single answer to any one of those questions."