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Breaking News: Bibi Is Considering a Temporary Settlement Freeze

Israel's Channel 2 Hebrew-language news just aired the story that Prime Minister Netanyahu is considering adopting a temporary freeze in settlement activity.  Hebrew speakers can listen to the broadcast here.

Since we are lucky enough to have Peace Now Settlement Watch director Hagit Ofran in the office right now, we thought we'd interview her for her reaction to the report and her analysis of what it means.

Lara: Hagit, you watched the entire broadcast on Channel 2.  For the benefit of the non-Hebrew speakers, can you summarize for us what the report said?

Hagit:  The reporter - Channel 2's senior political correspondent Udi Segal - said that according to his sources, Netanyahu is considering three options.  First is a "temporary settlement freeze," to continue until the end of 2009, to challenge the Palestinians to take their own positive steps.  Second is a "gradual freeze" meaning he would declare on Sunday that he is going to build in Jerusalem and in the settlement blocs, but that he would "freeze" construction in isolated settlements (which is code for everything not in the "blocs").  Third is not to commit to anything in public but to quietly send the Americans the message that the "current freeze of the last two months" will continue.

Segal also said that today Netanyahu met with members with his faction (i.e. Likud, not the whole coalition).  During this meeting [which reportedly focused on the possibility of endorsing the two-state solution] some expressed concerns, and others threatened to act against Netanyahu.  Segal added that tomorrow Netanyahu is supposed to meet with the Yesha Council leadership [the official leadership of the settlers], where he is expected to get a lot of push-back on the issue.  They settlers have already hung signs in the streets of Jerusalem saying that Netanyahu must not give in.

L:  What does this news tell us about the current political winds in Israel?

H:  I think it might mean that Netanyahu is starting to realize that the US Administration is serious about stopping settlements.  And I think that it might mean that Netanyahu is trying to prepare the public for the kind of decision that he knows he is going to have to take.

L:  What about the timing of this report?  Is it significant that this report is leaking just before Netanyahu is scheduled to deliver a major foreign policy speech (on Sunday)?

H:  This is all speculation, but the timing seems significant.  Again, it seems that Netanyahu is trying to prepare the public and prepare the ground for his speech on Sunday.  He could be leaking this now to make sure that whatever controversy it provokes, if it is too fierce, he can retreat a bit, or if he doesn't retreat, he can demand more credit from the US and the world for being courageous on the issue.

L:  Settlers and their core supporters aside, how do you think Israelis will react to this news?

H:  Mostly they will be indifferent.  Most Israelis don't care about the settlements and probably, until this became a major issue in the past few months, most Israelis probably believed that for the most part there was already a freeze.  So most won't really care, and the ones that care will probably support any policy that could preserve the good relationship with the United States, which is much more important to most Israelis than the settlements.  Israelis want to be accepted and embraced by the world.  Most Israelis would not accept the idea that keeping up building all over the West Bank is worth having the entire world hate them.  And I think Netanyahu knows that.

L:  So is this good news?  Does it mean Netanyahu is serious about freezing settlements?

H:  Yes, it is good news.  And we don't know yet if it means Netanyahu is serious about freezing settlements.  It could just mean that he is trying again to play the Israeli game of trying to test the United States and see what he can get away with in terms of the least commitments they will accept.  It could mean that he is playing the game of making official "commitments" that are never to be implemented.  We should remember that "freezing settlements" was accepted by the Israeli government as part of the Roadmap in 2003, but was never implemented.

L:  What will Bibi need to do to convince you that he is serious?

H:  We need to see a change on the ground.  We need to see the tractors and cranes stop working.  We need to see the workers leave the work sites.  This is not complicated - as Secretary Clinton said, a stop means a stop.

L: What about East Jerusalem and settlement blocs?

H:  This seems to be part of the experiment here.  By saying he will consider a freeze but not include the blocs and East Jerusalem, Netanyahu may be trying to see how far he can push this with the Americans, who clearly won't want to accept this.  We have to wait and see what the Americans will say.  This might be the new "trap" of the kind we saw in the past - like loopholes for natural growth or settlement blocs.

L:  Why is a freeze in East Jerusalem and the blocs important?

H:  This is obvious: for the same reason as everywhere else in the West Bank.  This is all considered by the world and especially the Palestinians as building in settlements - including East Jerusalem.  It is beyond the Green Line - occupied territory.  The Israeli unilateral annexation of East Jerusalem has never been accepted by the world or the Palestinians.  The Israeli de facto annexation of settlement blocs has never been accepted by the world and especially the Palestinians.  There is no way to proceed toward a credible peace process if construction continues in these areas.

L:  What about the "temporary" aspect?  Assuming that there is a total, real settlement freeze, including East Jerusalem and blocs, is it enough if it only goes for 5 and 1/2 months?

H:  Of course I would think that renewing the construction after the end of 5 and 1/2 months would be the wrong thing to do.  It would be against the Israeli interests.  Freezing settlements is something that should be done because it right for Israel, not as a "gift" to the Palestinians or the Americans or anyone else.  Even though what is being discussed is only "temporary" freeze, still it opens the opportunity for moving forward with the peace process - with the Palestinians and the Arab world.  It is not a "stand alone" item.  It is only a basic element that hopefully will allow Israel and the world to proceed to the real issues - borders, Jerusalem, refugees - and finally get to a peace agreement.