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Annapolis Countdown - November 26, 2007

The final issue of the Countdown! Tomorrow, dozens of world leaders will gather to kick off a new Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process.

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So, the final issue of the Countdown is here. Tomorrow, at the Annapolis Naval Academy, dozens of foreign ministers and other world leaders will gather to join President Bush, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, to kick off a new Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process.

In public opinion polls, press analyses and casual conversations in the region and in Washington, skepticism regarding the process abounds. But the conference, the first step of this process, so far seems somewhat promising.

The cloud that hung over Annapolis until late last week - Arab participation and level of representation -- has drifted away. Arab governments - like other international players - received an invitation letter from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, which said that progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace "is one of the highest priorities of [President Bush's] administration over the coming year."

Arab League members decided last week in Cairo to attend the conference and to send their foreign ministers. That includes Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Syria. Damascus, however, will be represented by its Deputy Foreign Minister, Fayssal Mekdad. Israel welcomed Syria's decision. "Israel sees in a positive way the high-ranking participation of Syria in a conference which is clearly about the Israeli-Palestinian track, but could open additional avenues to peace in the Middle East," said Miri Eisin, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Olmert is arriving in Washington with a large delegation that includes his foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, and his defense minister, Ehud Barak. Representatives of all of Israel's major news media already arrived in Washington and Annapolis.

President Bush last night issued a statement welcoming Olmert and Abbas and stating: "I remain personally committed to implementing my vision of two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security." The statement calls upon all participants in the conference "to redouble their efforts to turn dreams of peace into reality."

The speech that President Bush will deliver at the opening of the conference tomorrow has been a source of concern in Israel. According to reports in the Israeli press, Prime Minister Olmert made several attempts, including a lengthy conversation with Bush, to influence the content of the speech. Analysts speculated that if Olmert and Abbas fail to produce a last ditch joint statement before the President opens the meeting, Bush's speech will supply the missing substance.

Last moment attempts directed at reaching such a joint statement are still being made in Washington. Last night, the two chief negotiators, Israeli Foreign Minister Livni and veteran Palestinian negotiator Ahmad Qurei met here to try to bridge the gap. They reportedly failed. Still, Livni told Israeli reporters accompanying her that she believes there will be a joint Israeli-Palestinian document to introduce to the Annapolis conferees. Today, a member of the Palestinian negotiating team, Yasser Abed-Rabbo, said that there will be a joint statement before the opening of the conference.

Such a document would obviously generate some excitement and confidence in the Annapolis process among Israelis and Palestinians. Recent polls show that both publics are highly skeptical and cynical both about the motivation of the leaders who are pushing toward Annapolis and about the prospects for success. However, the same polls show broad public support - among Palestinians and Israelis alike - for an Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process. According to a poll released yesterday by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, 68% of Palestinians support, to various degrees, the participation of the Palestinian leadership in Annapolis. Polling data from Israel is almost identical. A survey published Friday by Israel's largest circulation daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, shows that 69% support the convening of the Annapolis conference. A majority (56%) said they "count on the USA as a fair intermediary in negotiations," and a whopping 70% said Israel should negotiate with Syria. The surprise of the poll? When asked whether the Palestinians be required to recognize Israel as a Jewish state as a condition for negotiations, only 25% said yes. A full three-quarters (75%) said they should not.

These numbers may explain the reluctance of the Israeli right to take its strong opposition to the Annapolis gathering to the streets. The settlers' anti-Annapolis protest is reportedly not taking off, mainly because they want to avoid antagonizing the Israeli center. Annapolis opponents today organized two smallish rallies against the conference in Jerusalem, one by the Wailing Wall and one in downtown Jerusalem.

One extreme right group reportedly suffered a blow Sunday when Israel's largest bus company, Egged, cancelled a large ad campaign by SOS Israel. The group prepared enough placards to attach to 1,000 Egged busses, saying "Olmert is escaping from the Police to Annapolis." The campaign alludes to the police investigations conducted against Olmert in regards to several alleged scandals. An Egged spokesman said that the company concluded that the messages are inappropriate.

Annapolis is already rolling out the red carpet for the negotiators. Last week, Annapolis Mayor Ellen Moyer issued a proclamation welcoming the upcoming Mideast peace conference to the city. According to the proclamation, "the City offers attendees at the international Middle East peace conference its best wishes and urges them to find the courage, strength, commitment, determination, and humility necessary to achieve success in this important endeavor."

And finally, a quick note to the media: APN will have a battery of experts available for comments and analysis today and tomorrow. Several of them will be in Annapolis tomorrow. APN will also be happy to help reporters with advice and guidance, including handy contact information of Israeli and Palestinian official spokespeople here. Feel free to contact Ori Nir by email onir@peacenow.org or by phone: (202) 728-1893.


Annapolis Countdown is a weekly publication of Americans for Peace Now, prepared by Ori Nir. Americans for Peace Now is a Jewish, Zionist organization dedicated to enhancing Israel's security through peace and to supporting the Israeli Peace Now movement. For more information, please contact APN at (202) 728-1893.