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Middle East Peace Report - November 9, 2009

Volume 11, Issue 8

Remembering Rabin; Farewell to Abbas? Israel's Partner; Cold Shoulder; The Mofaz Plan; Honoring Kahane? Israeli Public Opinion

Remembering Rabin: 30,000 Israelis gathered Saturday night in the square where Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995.

Israeli President Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Ehud Barak made speeches. U.S. President Barack Obama addressed the crowd in a pre-recorded video.

"On that terrible November night, Yitzhak left us with his death," Obama said. "Now it is up to us to carry on its meaning; to carry on his work."

Rabin "imagined a different future for his children and his grandchildren, declaring on the stage [the night he was killed]: No to war, yes to peace," Obama noted, adding that "Israelis will not find true security while the Palestinians are gripped by hopelessness and despair."

"We will never lose sight of our shared purpose: A just and lasting peace between Israel, the Palestinians, and the Arab world," Obama pledged. (Ma'ariv, 11/8/09; Jerusalem Post, 11/8/09; U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv, 11/8/09)

Farewell to Abbas? Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced on Thursday that he has "no desire" to run for reelection, though many believe he may stay at his post for some time.

For one, it is not clear that elections will be held this January as scheduled. They may be postponed as part of a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation deal, or they may be pushed back if Hamas blocks voting in Gaza. Elections might also be delayed if Israel objects to voting in East Jerusalem.

In addition, there is the possibility that Abbas will change his mind and run for reelection. Abbas' party, Fatah, is currently refusing to name a candidate to take his place in the hope that he will choose to run.

Support for Abbas was palpable in the West Bank this weekend, as much-televised pro-Abbas marches were held and advertisements ran in Palestinian newspapers urging him to seek reelection.

That support was also evident in a poll released Sunday by Near East Consulting, which found that 62% of Palestinians oppose Abbas' decision to not run for reelection. Interestingly, 76% expect that Abbas will reverse his decision.

Some analysts see the Abbas announcement as a lever to pressure the U.S. administration and Israel.

"Abbas is trying to tell the U.S. administration that its bias in favor of Israel is sabotaging the peace process," a Palestinian official told the Jerusalem Post. "He's particularly upset with [U.S. Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton, because he feels that she's the one who convinced President Barack Obama to soften his attitude on the issue of settlements."

Haaretz reports today that "sources close to Abbas said they expect him to retract his decision to quit politics if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commits publicly to freezing settlement construction during final-status talks. As an alternative to such an Israeli commitment, Abbas is seeking a guarantee from U.S. President Barack Obama that would explicitly mention cessation of Israeli construction in East Jerusalem." (Haaretz, 11/8 & 11/9/09; Jerusalem Post, 11/8/09; Maan; 11/8/09)

Israel's Partner: Israelis across the spectrum are voicing their concern at the possibility that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will retire from political life.

Speaking at a rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday, Israeli President Shimon Peres called on Abbas not to relent from the peace process. He added that the alternative to a two-state solution was not a one-state solution, but rather a long conflict that will know no end.

Dov Weissglas, who served as chief of staff to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, writes Sunday that Abbas' announcement follows a "growing sense among the Palestinians that Israel is not interested in reaching a political resolution of the conflict... the despair and loss of faith are real."

Weissglas notes that the current Palestinian government "has done a better job than any before to fight terrorism. The Palestinian government under Abbas and [Prime Minister Salam] Fayyad's leadership has succeeded in restoring quiet and security stability. In what was an impressive operation, the Palestinian Authority successfully reorganized its security forces, imposed law and order, prevented terrorism and maintained unprecedented coordination with the Israeli security establishment."
 
Weissglas recalls that "at the beginning of this decade, when the rampage of Palestinian terrorism was at its peak, Israel's fundamental condition for negotiations was a cessation of terrorism and violence. The current Palestinian government has delivered those goods. It behooves Israel, as such, to make every effort to ensure the continued existence of that government... The worst of all will be if the Palestinians come to believe that a sincere effort to eradicate terrorism does nothing to change Israel's position, and that no political progress will ever be made in any event."

Former Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh bemoans Israel's failure to engage with Abbas when he succeeded Yasser Arafat in January 2005: "The Israeli government did not take advantage of this development. The withdrawal from Gaza was not handed to Abbas as a gesture which could have greatly strengthened his position vis-a-vis Hamas. Instead, Gaza was handed to Hamas, unilaterally, and we all know what the consequences were."

"The conduct of Abbas, the most courageous partner we have had, is in large measure a by-product of our missed opportunities," writes Sneh in Sunday's Haaretz. "It is the result of an arrogance and lack of interest in what is happening within the PA, just five kilometers from the Israeli prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Abbas' withdrawal from his leading role in contacts with Israel is good news for anyone who fears a solution to the conflict and anyone not ready to pay the price. For everyone else who still understands the world in which we live, and who fears for the fate of the Jewish state, this is a wake-up call."

Haaretz's editorial Sunday called on the Israeli government to consider Abbas' announcement a wake-up call: "Israel does not have a better Palestinian partner for a peace settlement than Abbas. If [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is truly concerned about Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic state, he must try to persuade Abbas to reverse his decision to retire from political life: imposing a total, even if temporary, freeze on construction in the settlements; launching an expedited round of negotiations to reach a final-status accord on the basis of previous understandings; and taking additional measures to ease daily life in the territories. The alternative - a prolonged stalemate in the talks and the shelving of the separation plan with which Abbas is closely identified - will prove disastrous for Israel." (Israel Radio, 11/8/09; Haaretz, 11/8/09; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/8/09)

Cold Shoulder: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bureau has reportedly been giving Palestinian negotiators the cold shoulder.

Ben Caspit
writes in today's Ma'ariv that chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat claims to have repeatedly arrange a meeting with his Israeli counterpart but was turned down every time. "Apparently, Netanyahu's people are simply not interested," writes Caspit.  "Publicly, they call to start negotiations without preconditions, but discreetly, they thwart any attempt to hold such negotiations.  As of now, they are succeeding." (Ma'ariv 11/9/09)

The Mofaz Plan: Former Israel Minister of Defense and senior Kadima Party official Shaul Mofaz unveiled a plan Sunday to promote the peace process. He also expressed his willingness to negotiate with Hamas if they meet a series of conditions.

"I believe that responsible leaders sit down with such groups," Mofaz said.

The Mofaz plan calls for the immediate establishment of a Palestinian state in temporary borders and intensive negotiations to resolve all final status issues.  To assure the Palestinians of the sincerity of the effort, the plan calls for Israel to acknowledge at the outset that Israel would compensate the Palestinians for territory Israel retains in the West Bank with an equal amount of territory that is now under Israeli sovereignty.

The Mofaz plan is significant because Mofaz has long been seen as a hawkish political figure. At the same time, as Yossi Verter writes in Haaretz, "Mofaz's plan is mostly about domestic politics. Ever since he lost Kadima's leadership primary to Tzipi Livni by a mere 431 votes in September 2008, he has been determined to win the next round - whenever that is. By presenting his plan, he is signaling his party colleagues that he views Livni as a mere passing episode. He feels no obligation to her and her positions; he is completely independent. He is also signaling that he has no intention of abandoning Kadima for Likud: With a plan like this, Likud is no place for him."

Mofaz is not only challenging Livni. Yesterday he leveled an attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the "diplomatic freeze" in peace-making efforts. "It's irresponsible," he said. "Time is running out; it is not on our side. More and more parties worldwide are raising the option of a binational state... Israel is viewed as rejectionist as long as the diplomatic freeze continues, and the likelihood of another round of terror is increasing.... No leader has the privilege of sitting with folded hands." (Ma'ariv, 11/3/09; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/9/09; Haaretz, 11/8 & 11/9/09)

Honoring Kahane? On Tuesday, Israel Radio broadcast an advertisement inviting Israelis to attend a commemoration for Rabbi Meir Kahane. The ad was pulled after the Israeli Peace Now movement mobilized its activists to complain.

Kahane was the founder of Kach, which is recognized by both the Israeli and American governments as a terrorist group. He advocated the forcible removal of Palestinians from Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. His followers included Baruch Goldstein, who murdered 29 Palestinians during prayers at a Hebron mosque in 1994.

Ynet reported that "the radio station was flooded with complaints from listeners... [it] decided to withdraw the ad."

An attempt by Knesset Member Michael Ben-Ari to pay tribute to Kahane on the Knesset floor was also blocked by Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, who ruled that the speech would be a "provocation."   (Ynet, 11/3/09; PeaceNow.org.il, 11/3/09; Ma'ariv, 11/4/09)

Israeli Public Opinion:  Israelis are aware that the status quo in the peace process is dangerous for Israel and they would welcome an expanded American role in the peace process, according to a poll released last month by the Geneva Institute.

59% of Israelis told pollsters that they back an expanded American role in support of the Israeli-Palestinian track.

63% of Israelis said that continuing the status quo, without political progress with the Palestinians, is bad for Israel. Only 25% thought that the current situation is beneficial.
    
The poll also showed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could increase his base of support if he took a dramatic step towards peace. 46% of Israelis said that such a move would increase their support for the prime minister. Only 18% said that it would lessen their support. (Geneva Institute, 10/1/09)