My new piece posted (late) last night on Foreign Policy's Middle East channel.

Glib talk about settlements harms peace efforts

With the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks this week and the approaching September 26th expiration of the settlement moratorium, the settlements issue is set to once again take center stage.

Last week, in an otherwise excellent article, former US Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk suggested that this need not be a crisis. He stated that "there could be a workable compromise if Mr. Netanyahu restricts building to modest growth in the settlement blocs that will most likely be absorbed into Israel in the final agreement, while offering changes that would make a real difference to West Bank Palestinians..."

The following day, Haaretz's Aluf Benn offered a similar observation as he laid out the popular wisdom regarding what can be expected from Prime Minister Netanyahu. Benn stated that "Everyone agrees the sweeping construction freeze cannot be continued and that the large settlement blocs should be distinguished from the isolated settlements beyond the separation fence. Construction will resume in the blocs and be frozen in the isolated settlements--or continue on a small scale."

This narrative is highly attractive to analysts and pundits because it is simple to articulate, sounds reasonable, and offers an easy answer to the question: how can Netanyahu possibly continue the settlement moratorium? The answer? He doesn't have to.

Unfortunately, this narrative has two huge flaws.

Yesterday (August 1), Dov Weissglas - former top advisor to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and author of the famous Weissglas letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - published an astute op-ed in the Hebrew-language edition of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest-circulation newspaper.  In his piece Weissglas suggests that on one hand the Palestinians have good reason to believe that Netanyahu is not serious about peace, and on the other that Israel truly needs successful negotiations. 

Weissglas - who is by no means a dove (no pun intended) - closes with these powerful words:  "The outline of the possible solution is clear: the establishment of a Palestinian state, the evacuation of most of Judea and Samaria with some territorial swaps, devising a joint control arrangement in Jerusalem based on demographic principles, and the resettling of the Palestinian refugees within the borders of the Palestinian state. The present government, like any other government, will be unsuccessful in substantially altering this outline. The sooner it makes the painful decisions necessary for its implementation, the sooner Palestinian suspicions will evaporate and chances will grow for a successful outcome to talks."

Mr. Weisglass, we couldn't agree more.

Full Weissglass op-ed after the break (translation by Israel News Today).